Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Here Comes That Fella Jose Update One
























2:44 PM ADT Tuesday 19 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:
Queens County
Shelburne County
Yarmouth County
For Hurricane Jose.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Hurricane Jose forecast to drift slowly southeast of Cape Cod for the next few days. Minimal land impacts expected at this time.

1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 a.m. ADT.

Location: 36.7 North 71.7 West.

About 380 kilometres east-northeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North at 9 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 973 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Persistent moisture and cloud cover over Nova Scotia as well as rough surf along the Atlantic coast will be the norm this week as Jose crawls along to the southeast of Cape Cod. This is odd behaviour for a storm in this part of the Atlantic. High pressure to the east and absence of the jet stream to move it along are the key factors.

Hurricane Maria is a catastrophic category 5 hurricane that went directly over the Island of Dominica today. That storm will be located near the Bahamas by the weekend, at which time we will be contemplating whether we will require bulletins on it.

a. Wind.

So far it looks like just light to moderate southeasterly winds for Nova Scotia throughout most of the week.

b. Rainfall.

This flow pattern will keep skies mostly cloudy with some showers, drizzle and fog being the main theme especially along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. Some heavier showers are possible late Wednesday and Thursday as a trough forms east of the main low. We will continue to monitor.

c. Surge/Waves.

Increasingly rough surf conditions can be expected along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia today onward. One to 2 metre swells are expected today, then building to 3 to 4 metres Wednesday into Thursday, mainly along the southwestern shore. The swell will gradually diminish late this week. While there is a new moon tonight, and tides will be large, no storm surge is expected.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force east to southeast winds are expected for the southwestern portion of the Maritimes marine district Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. There is a small possibility that storm-force winds could reach the far southern part of George's Bank. Gale warnings have been issued for Georges Bank and part of West Scotian Slope. We will continue to monitor.

Forecaster: Fogarty/Mercer

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite imagery indicate that Jose's cloud pattern has improved
since the previous advisory. Curved band features have become more
evident in all quadrants and the upper-level outflow has also
expanded and become more anticyclonic. Jose actually looks more like
a tropical cyclone now. Satellite intensity estimates have increased
and were a consensus T3.5/55 kt at 1800Z. Since that time, the
convective pattern has continued to improve, including a burst of
convection with cloud tops colder than -60C having developed near
and over the well-defined low-level center. Given the much improved
satellite cloud pattern, the intensity will remain 65 kt. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Jose by 2300Z.

Jose has made the much anticipated turn toward the north-northeast
and is now moving 025/07 kt. There is no significant change to
the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest NHC model
guidance remains in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning
toward the northeast by Wednesday morning, followed by a turn toward
the east on Thursday as the cyclone moves around the north side of
deep-layer ridge. During the 72-120 hour period, a high-latitude
ridge is forecast to build to the north of Jose, forcing the
cyclone slowly southward and southwestward over the far North
Atlantic. The new official forecast track lies a little to the east
of the consensus models, closer to the ECMWF solution.

The center and much of the inner core of Jose will be moving over
21-22C SSTs by 36-48 h. However, a large portion of the hurricane's
circulation will still be located over much warmer water, which will
maintain a long, southerly fetch of unstable air into and to the
north of the center. Since the vertical wind shear is expected to be
20 kt or less, only gradual weakening is expected as per the
previous intensity forecasts, and the intensity models IVCN and
HCCA.

The 34-kt wind radii were increased slightly in the northwestern
quadrant based on 14-15Z ASCAT scatterometer wind data, offshore
buoy reports, and a 40-45 kt wind report from ship VRGH3.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New
England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3
inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches
are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This
rainfall could cause isolated flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 37.2N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 38.2N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 39.2N  69.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 39.7N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 39.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 39.0N  67.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  23/1800Z 38.6N  68.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  24/1800Z 38.3N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

000
FXUS61 KCAR 192108
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
508 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area tonight while Hurricane
Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will turn
eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be ridged across northern Maine tonight,
with Hurricane Jose located south of Cape Cod. Skies will remain
cloudy across central and Downeast portions of the forecast
area tonight. An area of rain will move northwest toward the
Downeast coast tonight. However, the high to the north will
limit the northward movement. The best chances of rain tonight
will be along the Downeast coast, with lesser chances northward
across the remainder of the region. Only isolated showers are
possible across northern portions of the forecast area tonight.
Clouds have thinned across northern portions of the forecast
area this afternoon. However, with lingering low level moisture
expect clouds will re-develop tonight. Fog will move back
onshore across Downeast areas tonight, with fog re-developing
across the remainder of the region, which will linger early
Wednesday. High pressure will begin to build south across the
region Wednesday afternoon. After a mostly cloudy morning,
expect decreasing clouds across northern areas during the
afternoon. Rain could linger Downeast, particularly closer to
the coast, early Wednesday. The rain will then end through the
morning into the afternoon with skies remaining mostly cloudy.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to around
60 north, to around 60 to the lower 60s Downeast. High
temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 70s
across much of the forecast area, with around 70 to the lower
70s along the Downeast coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Jose is expected to move to the southeast of Nantucket Island
Wednesday evening. At the same time strong high pressure will
be located to the north of the state. Jose is then expected to
drift very slowly to the east and south Thursday and Friday
which will allow the strong high to dominate most of the region.
Expect clouds in coastal areas Wednesday night but clearing
should take place Thursday in all areas as high pressure builds
in. Some clouds are expected in the north and along the coast
later Friday as the high pressure system starts to weaken.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At this point, no significant weather systems are expected in
the long term part of the forecast. Surface high pressure and a
weak ridge aloft will keep it dry and sunny on Saturday. The
upper ridge looks to keep Jose (or its remnant low) well south
of the area before it either drifts back west or gets pushed
east, depending on which model solution you favor. Either way,
Jose looks to have little or no impact on Maine weather in the
long-term, aside from seas perhaps remaining a bit rough through
the weekend.

Between Saturday night and Monday morning, various models have
indications of weak troughs or fronts pushing across the area,
but none have much in the way of precipitation or a sizable
cold air push behind them, so POPs were kept fairly low. There
may be a bit more agreement on a possible front and a weakening
of the upper ridge later Monday into Tuesday, but may questions
remain, so POPs were limited to low - end chance at best.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally IFR/LIFR conditions are expected with low
clouds and fog Downeast tonight into early Wednesday, with
MVFR/IFR conditions Wednesday afternoon. VFR/MVFR conditions are
expected across northern areas early tonight. IFR/LIFR
conditions will then develop overnight and persist early
Wednesday. Conditions will then improve to VFR levels across
northern areas Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Wednesday night
through Sunday, with the exception of variable conditions with
any late night fog.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas is in
effect tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Visibilities will
be reduced in rain and fog tonight through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: For winds: Have used a 50/50 blend of the NAM and
GFS. Expect northeast winds to increase Thursday as gradient
tightens in the juxtaposition between Jose and strong high
pressure to the north. Winds will then decrease Friday as Jose
drifts to the south. For Waves: Southeasterly swell from Jose
will continue to build into Wednesday. As winds increase a
secondary northeasterly wind wave system will develop across the
Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday. This wave system will
combine with long period southeasterly swell. Will initialize
the waves with the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) and
will then lower wave heights 1 foot to adjust for expected high
bias.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 14
seconds/5-6 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are
expected to increase in height Tonight and Wednesday. So will
extend the high surf advisory. Concern is that long period waves
high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the
shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of
spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents
are also expected.

The astronomical tide will be at the highest levels of the
month as well over the next few days. Northeasterly winds are
expected to increase Late Wednesday and Thursday resulting in an
additional 1 foot of storm surge. The largest waves are
expected to arrive Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Therefore the
Wednesday Night at 11:50 PM and Thursday Afternoon at 12:13 AM
high tide cycles are of greatest concern for runup and splash-
over along coastal areas directly exposed to large ocean waves.

Since the expected storm surge is going to be only around 1
foot, the total water levels inland from the coast are NOT
expected to be high enough for flooding resulting from storm
surge alone.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&
$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Norcross/Mignone
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

Monday, September 18, 2017

Here Comes That Fella Jose



















COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

...HIGH SURF EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TROPICAL SYSTEM JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS ENTERING THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY, BUILDING UP TO 5 TO 9 FEET. THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THESE BUILDING WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE SOME SPLASH-OVER NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.

MEZ023-NHZ014-190600-
/O.NEW.KGYX.SU.Y.0003.170918T1905Z-170919T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.CF.S.0019.170919T0300Z-170919T0500Z/
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
305 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...

* LOCATION...COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

* SURF HEIGHT...BUILDING TO 5 TO 9 FEET.

* TIMING...THROUGH TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* COASTAL FLOODING...SOME SPLASH-OVER POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF
  HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.

&&
$$

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR MAINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
316 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

MEZ029-030-190330-
/O.NEW.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.170918T2100Z-170920T0000Z/
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
316 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 9 FEET

* TIMING...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

* IMPACTS...HIGH DANGEROUS SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL
  MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS.

* RIP CURRENTS...ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY
  AWAY FROM SHORE. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS. PAY ATTENTION
  TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

* HIGH SURF...LARGE WAVES CAN PRESENT A DANGER TO PEOPLE ON
  ROCKS ABOVE THE WATER. STAY AWAY FROM ROCK OUTCROPS ALONG THE
  SHORELINE EXPOSED TO OCEAN WAVES...AS WAVES CAN EASILY SWEEP
  PEOPLE INTO THE COLD OCEAN WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&
$$

2:36 PM ADT Monday 18 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:
Queens County
Shelburne County
Yarmouth County
For Hurricane Jose.

The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Hurricane Jose forecast to move northward and may stall not far to the south of Nova Scotia. Minimal land impacts expected.

1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 34.3 North 71.3 West.

About 402 kilometres east-southeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North at 15 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 977 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Due to the slow motion of this storm there remains much doubt as to whether it will impact our weather directly. At the very least there will be persistent moisture and cloud cover over Nova Scotia as well as rough surf along the Atlantic coast throughout the week as the hurricane crawls along.

Hurricane Maria is currently approaching the Caribbean and be located near the Bahamas later this week, at which time we will be contemplating whether we will require bulletins for it. Tropical Depression Lee is dissipating in the mid Atlantic and is of no concern to Canada.

a. Wind.

So far it looks like just light to moderate southeasterly winds for Nova Scotia throughout most of the week. This flow pattern will keep skies mostly cloudy with some showers, drizzle and fog being the main theme especially along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.

b. Rainfall.

Some showers from the outer fringes of Jose may reach Nova Scotia toward the middle of the week.

c. Surge/Waves.

Increasingly rough surf conditions can be expected along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia From Tuesday onward. One to 2 metre swells are possible with a maximum of up to 3 metres over southwestern regions later this week.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force east to southeast winds are expected for the southwestern portion of the Maritimes marine district Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecaster: March

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion



ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

The cloud pattern of Jose has not changed much during the day.  The
hurricane continues to lose some tropical characteristics, and it
remains asymmetric with most of the convective bands located to the
north of the center.  The initial wind speed is held at 65 kt based
on the earlier aircraft data.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter
plane is scheduled to investigate Jose this evening and will
provide a better assessment of the strength and structure of the
hurricane.

Jose is expected to remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters for
about another day, so even though the shear is high, the hurricane
will likely maintain its intensity during that time.  Shortly
thereafter, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf
Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass.  These
unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead
to post-tropical transition, which is expected to be complete by day
3.  The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and
in good agreement with the consensus aids.

The hurricane continues to wobble around, but the general motion
is northward at 9 kt.  The overall track forecast philosophy is
unchanged.  A continued northward motion at about the same forward
speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane
remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western
Atlantic.  Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is
expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time
frame.  The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in
weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the
south or southwest at the end of the forecast period.  Only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one
lies near the various consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast
Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the
risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the
left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread
rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and
New Jersey.  If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban
flash flooding and some river flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 34.8N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 35.9N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 37.4N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 38.9N  70.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 39.9N  68.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 40.0N  67.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  22/1800Z 39.4N  67.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  23/1800Z 38.5N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

000
FXUS61 KCAR 182105
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
505 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain over the area into Tuesday while
Hurricane Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will
turn eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday
into Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A warm front will lift north of the region overnight while high
pressure remains ridged across the forecast area. Satellite
imagery indicates low clouds still covering most of the Downeast
region. Across the remainder of the region, the low clouds have
eroded in some locations while persisting in others. Low level
moisture will persist across the region tonight. Skies will
remain cloudy Downeast tonight. Expect low clouds will re-
develop and bank up against the higher terrain across the rest
of the region overnight, similar to last night. Fog will also
move inland across Downeast areas early tonight along with
patchy drizzle and a chance of showers. Fog will re-develop
across the rest of the region, particularly east of the higher
terrain, overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory could be needed across
much of the region again later tonight. High pressure will
remain ridged across the region Tuesday, though moisture from
Hurricane Jose could begin to bring increasing rain chances to
Downeast areas during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect extensive
low clouds and fog early tomorrow across much of the region
east of the higher terrain. Skies will remain mostly cloudy
Downeast Tuesday. Across the remainder of the region, clouds
should lift and thin with partly/mostly cloudy skies during the
afternoon. Could also have a chance/slight chance of rain during
the afternoon across central and northern areas, with the
lesser rain chances to the north. Low temperatures tonight will
range through the 50s north, to the upper 50s Downeast. The
warmest temperatures Tuesday will again occur across northwest
areas where the most sun is expected with highs in the mid 70s.
High temperatures across much of the rest of the region will
range from the upper 60s to around 70, with mid to upper 60s
along the Downeast coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

The model guidance is in good general agreement through the
short term period of the forecast. A high pressure ridge will be
in place across northern Maine, with Hurricane Jose moving
north along the eastern seaboard east of NJ south of Long
Island. The feeder bands from Jose will interact with the
coastal front bringing showers and thunderstorms to Downeast
Maine. Jose is forecasted to move northeast and track across the
southern portions of the Gulf of Maine then drift back to the
southwest towards Cape Cod. By the end of the period Jose will
be south of Eastport, east of Cape Cod. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM
all generally agree with minor timing and positional
differences.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used
GFS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

High pressure will be ridged across Maine through most of the
extended period. Hurricane Jose will be in the north Atlantic
well south of Eastport and southeast of Cape Cod. Jose will
slowly drift south to southwest and begin to fill. A weak
frontal boundary will drop into northern Maine Sunday morning
bringing a few shower across the north. The high pressure ridge
will push this front back to the north Sunday evening and will
remain across the region through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.
&&

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Watching Out For That Fella Jose Update Two



















000
WTNT42 KNHC 172040
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The satellite appearance of Jose has generally changed little
during the past several hours.  Microwave data indicate that the
center of circulation is located on the south side of the main area
of deep convection, likely due to strong southerly shear.  The
current intensity is held at 80 kt based on the earlier aircraft
data.  The initial wind radii have been adjusted outward in
accordance with the ASCAT data from a few hours ago.

The strong wind shear currently affecting Jose is expected to
continue for another day or so.  Although the shear is expected to
slacken beyond that time, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall
of the Gulf Stream current by then and move into a progressively
drier environment.  These conditions should cause a slow weakening
trend through the period, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one.  It should be noted, however, that
despite the expected weakening, the models suggest that Jose's outer
wind field will expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that
move into the mid-latitudes.

The hurricane continues to move northward at 8 kt on the west side
of a subtropical ridge.  This general motion is expected to
persist for the next 2 to 3 days while the steering pattern holds.
Thereafter, a turn to the northeast and then east is predicted as a
trough currently over central Canada moves closer to Jose.  This
trough, however, is not expected to pick up Jose, and instead the
cyclone is expected to meander or drift southward by the end of the
forecast period.  The 5-day forecast position has been adjusted to
the southwest of the previous NHC prediction, but otherwise only
minor changes were made.

The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will both be investigating
Jose this evening.  This valuable data will help assess the
hurricane's initial intensity and structure, and assist the models
in determining the future path and intensity of the hurricane.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts
from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts.  A tropical storm watch is now in
effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware
to southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total
accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts,
including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  Based on the current
forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope.  Any
deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring
heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long
Island, New York City, and New Jersey.  If this deviation
were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river
flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 31.5N  71.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 32.7N  71.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 34.3N  71.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 35.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 37.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 40.1N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 39.7N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 38.5N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
FXUS61 KCAR 172114
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
514 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain over the area into Tuesday while
Hurricane Jose approaches southeast New England. Jose will turn
eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into
Thursday........

......SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

High pressure will remain ridged across the region Monday night,
while Hurricane Jose lifts toward southern New England.
Partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers
is expected across northern areas Monday night. Mostly cloudy
skies with a chance of showers is expected Downeast Monday
night. High pressure will remain ridged north of the region
Tuesday into Wednesday, with Hurricane Jose to the south though
uncertainty still exists regarding the exact track of the
storm. Uncertainty also exists regarding rain chances Tuesday
into Wednesday. Stronger high pressure to the north would limit
rain amounts and the northern extent of rain. Weaker ridging
would allow more moisture to be drawn north. A coastal front or
convergence zone could develop across Downeast areas and help
focus precipitation. The better chances of rain and greater
rainfall totals are generally expected Downeast, with lesser
totals to the north. However, exact totals are still uncertain.
High pressure should begin to build south later Wednesday.
Rain chances should begin to decrease Wednesday afternoon, with
the most persistent rains Downeast. Fog, most extensive
Downeast, should be a concern both Monday night and Tuesday
night. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above
normal, levels Tuesday/Wednesday.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The extended models have a significantly different solution for
the weather through most of the extended forecast. The GFS
continues moving Hurricane Jose across the southern portions of
the Gulf of Maine. Placing it east of Cape Cod and south of
Eastport at the start of the extended period. Then as the
extended period progresses drifts it to the southeast into the
north Atlantic. Jose is then forecasted to return to the Cape
Cod area early Monday morning. The ECMWF moves Jose into the
coastal areas of NY and NJ where its forecast to remain
stationary and to begin to fill, until it finally regresses into
Delmarva Sunday afternoon and dissipates. Through all of the
model differences with Jose, the models do agree that the state
of Maine will remain under a high pressure ridge for most of the
period with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms early
in the period for Downeast Maine. By the end of the period. Both
models are showing current tropical storm Maria east of Georgia
and southeast of Outer Banks of North Carolina moving north.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.