TROPICAL STORM BERYL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED

WOCN31 CWHX 191800
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
WEDNESDAY 19 JULY 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...TROPICAL STORM BERYL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.8 N AND LONGITUDE 73.8 W... ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES OR 170 KM
EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1003
MB. BERYL IS MOVING NORTH AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 19 3.00 PM 35.8N 73.8W 1003 40 74
JUL 20 3.00 AM 37.2N 73.4W 1000 45 83
JUL 20 3.00 PM 38.7N 72.5W 997 50 93
JUL 21 3.00 AM 40.5N 70.2W 997 50 93
JUL 21 3.00 PM 42.2N 67.3W 997 50 93 TRANSITIONING
JUL 22 3.00 AM 43.9N 63.9W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 3.00 PM 45.5N 59.5W 999 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 AM 47.4N 54.0W 1000 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 49.6N 47.8W 1001 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE REMNANTS OF BERYL ARE NOT FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MARITIMES UNTIL
FRIDAY AND NEWFOUNDLAND ON THE WEEKEND.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
BERYL IS FORECAST TO ENTER CANADIAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
TROPICAL STORM BERYL GAINED A BIT OF STRENGTH THIS MORNING WHILE EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE STORM IS OVER 28-DEGREE SSTS. AIRCRAFT RECON
AROUND 12Z REPORTED MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KNOTS WHICH SUPPORTS
SURFACE WINDS NEAR 40 KTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY GAIN MORE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT REMAINS OVER 26C+ SSTS. THEREAFTER..IT WILL SPEND ABOUT ANOTHER
12 HOURS OVER 24-26C SSTS. AFTER THAT WE EXPECT BERYL TO BE MOVING
OVER WATERS UNDER 20C AS IT MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY FRIDAY.
LITTLE OR NO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER
THE COOL WATERS..AT LEAST INITIALLY.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL BERYL BECOME BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE COOLER WATER. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 50 KTS. 60 KTS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE WARM WATERS. THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY ACHIEVED WILL NATURALLY HAVE A BEARING ON THE FORECAST AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE MARITIMES.

OUR CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF VARIOUS NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACKS. A FULL ASSESSMENT OF ALL 12Z MODELS IS NOT POSSIBLE
UNTIL AFTER 18Z TODAY..HOWEVER..THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS BERYL
MOVING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD WITH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
MERGING WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
THE MERGING OF STORM AND FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND EVENTUALLY NEWFOUNDLAND. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS OR WHETHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH
WIND FROM IT..BUT WE WILL HAVE BETTER IDEA BY EARLY THURSDAY.

ANALYSIS OF THE NOGAPS CYCLONE PHASE SPACE FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS
THAT ET MAY BE COMPLETED WHEN BERYL ENTERS CANADIAN TERRITORY ON
FRIDAY..IN WHICH CASE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BEHAVE MORE LIKE A
FRONTAL WEATHER SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SEE ABOVE

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
19/18Z 85 85 35 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20/06Z 90 90 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20/18Z 100 110 75 45 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
21/06Z 100 110 75 45 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
21/18Z 100 110 75 40 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 100 120 80 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 100 130 80 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 120 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 130 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END/FOGARTY