Thursday, September 04, 2008

Power category 4 Hurricane Ike a danger to Florida and the USA SE Coast



000
WTNT34 KNHC 042031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT....

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.6 N...58.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT44 KNHC 042032
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THOUGH
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM...THE
CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE
SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...THOUGH
THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND...COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM
WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD RESULT IN
RESTRENGTHENING. THE HURRICANE'S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE
LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT. RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
CAUSING A WEST...AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE
TOMORROW. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL
BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD
SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH THE
GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA. THE
OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS
BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 23.6N 58.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 23.9N 60.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 62.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 23.2N 65.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Hanna Update 1

WOCN31 CWHX 050000
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 04 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

...REMNANTS OF HANNA EXPECTED OVER MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.0 N AND LONGITUDE 76.2 W... ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES OR 170 KM
NORTHEAST OF NASSAU . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. HANNA IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 29 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 04 9.00 PM 26.0N 76.2W 989 55 102
SEP 05 9.00 AM 29.0N 77.2W 990 60 111
SEP 05 9.00 PM 32.0N 77.9W 990 60 111
SEP 06 9.00 AM 35.4N 76.8W 992 60 111
SEP 06 9.00 PM 39.0N 73.7W 996 55 102
SEP 07 9.00 AM 42.8N 69.0W 999 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 9.00 PM 46.2N 62.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 AM 49.0N 55.0W 1001 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 PM 50.8N 46.3W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 9.00 AM 51.7N 37.1W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT IT APPEARS HANNA MAY BRING
WIND AND RAIN TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LONG-PERIOD
WAVES/SURF FROM HANNA AND ANOTHER DISTANT STORM..IKE..SHOULD BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AGAIN TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS... BUT BASED ON LATEST
PROJECTIONS HANNA MAY BRING GALES TO MARITIME WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HANNA
AND DISTANT HURRICANE IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH MARITIME WATERS
ON SATURDAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE THERE MAY BE A LEADING AREA OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF HANNA OVER THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF HANNA INDICATES A RATHER SUB-TROPICAL
APPEARANCE WITH DRIER AIR INTRUDING INTO THE STORM WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INHIBITING CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CORE. NOT SURPRISINGLY NHC HAS
REDUCED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON THIS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS MEASURED DURING A MORNING FLIGHT RECON. HOWEVER NEW CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY BLOSSOMED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND MW IMAGERY IS
SHOWING SOME IMPROVED ORGANISATION ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL.

B. PROGNOSTIC
DESPITE THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AND SOMEWHAT UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM..HANNA IS EXPECTED TO SOON MOVE
INTO A MORE FAVOURABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND WEAKENING OF HANNA WILL LIKELY BEGIN THEREAFTER. PHASE SPACE
PROGNOSTICS GENERALLY AGREE TRANSITIONING WILL TAKE PLACE SOMETIME
BETWEEN THE 6TH TO 7TH...IMPLYING HANNA WILL VERY LIKELY BE
POST-TROPICAL BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MARITIMES.

CHC TRACK STILL EXPLICITLY FOLLOWING NHC TRACK AT THIS POINT...AND
LATEST TRACK SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS BULLETIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE ALL SIMILAR IN CURVING HANNA TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
BRUSHING THE EASTERN US SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE NOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CLUSTERED IN BOTH SPEED AND TRACK IN TAKING
HANNA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THESE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO DISTRIBUTION OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND RAINFALL.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NIL.

D. MARINE WEATHER
NIL.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
05/00Z 275 200 30 230 90 0 0 90 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 260 200 45 230 90 10 0 85 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 240 195 60 195 80 35 0 75 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 215 195 55 130 75 60 0 35 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 185 210 50 70 65 65 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 120 220 50 20 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 60 215 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 45 205 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/00Z 40 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/12Z 40 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


WIND RADII OF TRANSITIONING SYSTEM REFLECTS ENVIRONMENT PLUS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

END FOGARTY/CAMPBELL

Hanna, now a Tropical Storm, sets sights on East Coast








WOCN31 CWHX 041800
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 04 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

... HANNA TO AFFECT MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.1 N AND LONGITUDE 74.2 W... ABOUT 175 NAUTICAL MILES OR 330 KM
EAST OF NASSAU BAHAMAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55
KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. HANNA IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS... 22 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 04 3.00 PM 25.1N 74.2W 989 55 102
SEP 05 3.00 AM 27.8N 76.3W 990 55 102
SEP 05 3.00 PM 30.4N 77.8W 990 60 111
SEP 06 3.00 AM 33.6N 77.8W 989 65 120
SEP 06 3.00 PM 37.1N 75.7W 994 55 102 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 3.00 AM 41.0N 71.7W 997 50 93 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 3.00 PM 44.6N 66.2W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 AM 47.8N 59.2W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 PM 50.2N 50.8W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 3.00 AM 51.4N 41.8W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 3.00 PM 52.0N 32.5W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT IT APPEARS HANNA MAY BRING
WIND AND RAIN TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LONG-PERIOD
WAVES/SURF FROM HANNA AND ANOTHER DISTANT STORM..IKE..SHOULD BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AGAIN TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS... BUT BASED ON LATEST
PROJECTIONS HANNA MAY BRING GALES TO MARITIME WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HANNA
AND DISTANT HURRICANE IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH MARITIME WATERS
ON SATURDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF HANNA INDICATES A RATHER SUB-TROPICAL
APPEARANCE WITH DRIER AIR INTRUDING INTO THE STORM WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INHIBITING CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CORE. NOT SURPRISINGLY NHC HAS
REDUCED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON THIS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS MEASURED DURING A MORNING FLIGHT RECON. HOWEVER NEW CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY BLOSSOMED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND MW IMAGERY IS
SHOWING SOME IMPROVED ORGANISATION ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL.

B. PROGNOSTIC
DESPITE THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AND SOMEWHAT UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM..HANNA IS EXPECTED TO SOON MOVE
INTO A MORE FAVOURABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MARGINAL HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND WEAKENING OF HANNA WILL LIKELY BEGIN THEREAFTER. PHASE SPACE
PROGNOSTICS GENERALLY AGREE TRANSITIONING WILL TAKE PLACE SOMETIME
BETWEEN THE 6TH TO 7TH...IMPLYING HANNA WILL VERY LIKELY BE
POST-TROPICAL BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MARITIMES.

CHC TRACK STILL EXPLICITLY FOLLOWING NHC TRACK AT THIS POINT...AND
LATEST TRACK SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS BULLETIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE ALL SIMILAR IN CURVING HANNA TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
BRUSHING THE EASTERN US SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE NOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CLUSTERED IN BOTH SPEED AND TRACK IN TAKING
HANNA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THESE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO DISTRIBUTION OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND RAINFALL.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NIL.

D. MARINE WEATHER
NIL.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
04/18Z 275 200 30 230 90 0 0 90 0 0 0 0
05/06Z 275 200 30 230 90 0 0 90 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 250 200 60 230 90 25 0 80 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 230 190 65 165 75 50 0 75 50 0 0 0
06/18Z 200 200 50 100 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 175 220 50 45 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 70 225 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 50 210 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/18Z 40 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/06Z 40 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/18Z 40 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


WIND RADII OF TRANSITIONING SYSTEM REFLECTS ENVIRONMENT PLUS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

END BORGEL/FOGARTY

Weekend Flooding in parts of Nova Scotia

Heavy rain leaves mark on farms, roadsSource: CBC News
Posted: 09/02/08 8:11AM
Filed Under: Canada

A weekend of heavy rain washed out roads and flooded basements in parts of Nova Scotia.

In Cape Breton, a section of Route 19 in Inverness County remains closed after heavy rain overnight Sunday caused severe flooding in the area and damaged MacLeod's Bridge at Dunvegan.

Route 19 between Shore Road and Inverness is also closed.

Federal agriculture officials are expected to tour farm areas already suffering from a summer of rain, where some farmers say they've lost up to $400,000 worth of crops.

Agriculture Minister Brooke Taylor met with his federal counterpart, Gerry Ritz, on the weekend to talk about disaster assistance.

In Pictou County, some businesses in downtown New Glasgow were flooded by the heavy rain and a woman in her 80s had to be rescued from her mobile home in nearby Plymouth.

With files from the Canadian Press