Thursday, August 20, 2009

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #9



000
WTNT33 KNHC 210242
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

...POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL REMAINS ON TRACK...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...
825 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 975 MILES...1570 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...AND BILL COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH ON
FRIDAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
BERMUDA COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES GENERATED BY BILL.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 64.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT43 KNHC 210248
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BILL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
THE LARGE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL-DEFINED...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE THIS EVENING REPORTED A PEAK BELIEVABLE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 127 KT. ALTHOUGH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE
REPORTED...THE METEOROLOGISTS ON THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT CONSIDER
THOSE HIGHER WINDS TO BE VALID. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 110 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...SOME COOLING OF THE SSTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL TO REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE HURRICANE NEARS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BEGIN TO COOL MORE RAPIDLY AROUND THAT TIME...AND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY VERY SOON THEREAFTER. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE

BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/16 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH
NEW TO SAY ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RECURVE AHEAD
OF THAT TROUGH THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONCE AGAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING...OR WILL
AFFECT...A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

DATA FROM A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION CONDUCTED BY
NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ASSIMILATED INTO THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 24.9N 64.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 26.9N 66.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.6N 67.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 32.7N 68.9W 110 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 36.4N 68.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 44.3N 62.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 50.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/0000Z 55.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #8


WOCN31 CWHX 210000
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 24.4 N
And longitude 63.9 W... About 375 nautical miles or 690 km
North northeast of San Juan. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 110 knots... 204 km/h... And central pressure at
948 MB. Bill is moving northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 9.00 PM 24.4N 63.9W 948 110 204
Aug 21 9.00 AM 26.9N 65.9W 950 115 213
Aug 21 9.00 PM 29.6N 67.6W 948 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.7W 949 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 PM 36.8N 68.4W 955 110 204
Aug 23 9.00 AM 41.2N 66.5W 965 100 185 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 PM 44.8N 61.5W 977 85 157 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 47.9N 53.7W 987 70 130 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 43.2W 993 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 54.2N 29.5W 995 50 93 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc. Late this afternoon hurricane Bill has
Shown signs of deepening, with the eye becoming more symmetric on
conventional satellite imagery, and is near category 4 status on
The saffir-Simpson scale once again.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.

Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 40
23/00Z 210 185 110 175 105 95 60 90 75 55 30 30
23/12Z 225 210 130 160 115 110 70 80 70 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 140 130 125 125 85 65 60 60 15 15
24/12Z 235 235 150 120 140 140 90 60 30 30 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0

End hatt/March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 210000
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 N
AND LONGITUDE 63.9 W... ABOUT 375 NAUTICAL MILES OR 690 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS... 204 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
948 MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.00 PM 24.4N 63.9W 948 110 204
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.9N 65.9W 950 115 213
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.6N 67.6W 948 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.7W 949 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.8N 68.4W 955 110 204
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.2N 66.5W 965 100 185 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 44.8N 61.5W 977 85 157 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 47.9N 53.7W 987 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 43.2W 993 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 54.2N 29.5W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SWELL HEIGHTS
NEAR 2 M WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC. LATE THIS AFTERNOON HURRICANE BILL HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF DEEPENING, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC ON
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND IS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STATUS ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE ONCE AGAIN.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 40
23/00Z 210 185 110 175 105 95 60 90 75 55 30 30
23/12Z 225 210 130 160 115 110 70 80 70 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 140 130 125 125 85 65 60 60 15 15
24/12Z 235 235 150 120 140 140 90 60 30 30 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0

END HATT/MARCH/BOWYER



WOCN31 CWHX 201800 CCA
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

Correction to initial position and pressure.

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 23.2 N
And longitude 62.6 W... About 310 nautical miles or 575 km
North of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 105
Knots... 194 km/h... And central pressure at 951 MB. Bill is moving
Northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

The latest track of hurricane Bill has the storm moving slightly
southeast of the previous position over Newfoundland. However
Given the fact track errors are somewhat large beyond day three
One should not focus on the exact path.

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 3.00 PM 23.2N 62.6W 951 105 194
Aug 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
Aug 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
Aug 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 transitioning
Aug 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.

Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0

End March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 201800 CCA
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

CORRECTION TO INITIAL POSITION AND PRESSURE.

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.6 W... ABOUT 310 NAUTICAL MILES OR 575 KM
NORTH OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105
KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. BILL IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

THE LATEST TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL HAS THE STORM MOVING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE FACT TRACK ERRORS ARE SOMEWHAT LARGE BEYOND DAY THREE
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT PATH.

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 3.00 PM 23.2N 62.6W 951 105 194
AUG 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
AUG 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
AUG 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SWELL HEIGHTS
NEAR 2 M WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0

END MARCH/BOWYER



WOCN31 CWHX 201200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 22.3 N
And longitude 61.3 W... About 275 nautical miles or 505 km
North northeast of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 115 knots... 213 km/h... And central pressure at 948
MB. Bill is moving northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
Aug 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
Aug 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first 2 to 3 days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed.

Early cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to
undergo extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed
early on the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


End March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 201200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 61.3 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 505 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 948
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
AUG 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.

EARLY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED
EARLY ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


END MARCH/BOWYER

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 202344
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE BILL CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...
885 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1020 MILES...1640 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND BILL COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FOUR STRENGTH TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.4N 63.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #7










000
WTNT33 KNHC 202035
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD...
SPREADING HIGH SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 595 MILES...
960 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1080 MILES...1735 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...BILL STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON FRIDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.8N 63.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT43 KNHC 202036
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN SENDING VERY
VALUABLE DATA FROM HURRICANE BILL. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
DOWN TO 948 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 135 KNOTS. THE
SFMR REPORTED EARLIER A PEAK WIND OF 101 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND THE EYE IS NOW BETTER
DEFINED. IN FACT...GOES SATELLITE SUPER-RAPID SCAN SHOWS THE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL AND SEVERAL MESOVORTICES INSIDE THE
EYE...TYPICAL OF STRONG HURRICANES. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND
THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 110 KNOTS. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS ABOUT
TO ENCOUNTER THE WARMEST WATERS ALONG ITS PATH SO FAR.
FURTHERMORE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL EMBEDDED IN A WELL DEFINED
200 MB ANTICYCLONE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR RESTRENGTHENING AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STATUS AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY 96 HOURS IT SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN VERY
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTHERLY AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...INCREASING
CONSIDERABLY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SATURDAY MORNING AND BY SUNDAY...THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST...AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE NOAA AND THE 53RD AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
AROUND HURRICANE BILL TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE 0000
UTC MODEL RUN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 23.8N 63.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 25.6N 65.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 28.3N 67.1W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 31.0N 68.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 42.5N 64.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 49.0N 49.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 25/1800Z 53.5N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

Beautiful Close up Satellite Images of Hurricane Bill


Blogging About Hurricane Bill #6


WOCN31 CWHX 201800
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 23.1 N
And longitude 62.4 W... About 305 nautical miles or 565 km north
Of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 105
Knots... 194 km/h... And central pressure at 951 MB. Bill is moving
Northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

The latest track of hurricane Bill has the storm moving slightly
southeast of the previous position over Newfoundland. However
Given the fact track errors are somewhat large beyond day three
One should not focus on the exact path.

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 3.00 PM 23.1N 62.4W 957 105 194
Aug 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
Aug 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
Aug 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 transitioning
Aug 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.

Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0



End March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 201800
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.4 W... ABOUT 305 NAUTICAL MILES OR 565 KM NORTH
OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105
KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. BILL IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

THE LATEST TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL HAS THE STORM MOVING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE FACT TRACK ERRORS ARE SOMEWHAT LARGE BEYOND DAY THREE
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT PATH.

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 3.00 PM 23.1N 62.4W 957 105 194
AUG 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
AUG 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
AUG 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SWELL HEIGHTS
NEAR 2 M WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0



END MARCH/BOWYER



WOCN31 CWHX 201200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 22.3 N
And longitude 61.3 W... About 275 nautical miles or 505 km
North northeast of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 115 knots... 213 km/h... And central pressure at 948
MB. Bill is moving northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
Aug 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
Aug 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first 2 to 3 days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed.

Early cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to
undergo extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed
early on the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


End March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 201200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 61.3 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 505 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 948
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
AUG 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.

EARLY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED
EARLY ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


END MARCH/BOWYER

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #5


Hurricane Information Statements
WOCN31 CWHX 201200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 22.3 N
And longitude 61.3 W... About 275 nautical miles or 505 km
North northeast of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 115 knots... 213 km/h... And central pressure at 948
MB. Bill is moving northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
Aug 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
Aug 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first 2 to 3 days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed.

Early cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to
undergo extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed
early on the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


End March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 201200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 61.3 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 505 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 948
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
AUG 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.

EARLY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED
EARLY ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


END MARCH/BOWYER