Saturday, August 22, 2009

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #19

000
WTNT33 KNHC 222331
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...BILL MOVING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE WESTERN...
SOUTHERN...AND EASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 550 MILES...880 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...MOVE OVER OR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY...AND BE NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
275 MILES...445 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...WITH AROUND 1 INCH
EXPECTED OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS
FROM BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.8N 68.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #18



WOCN31 CWHX 230000
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SATURDAY
22 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

...LARGE HURRICANE BILL TO IMPACT NOVA SCOTIA AND PORTIONS OF PEI...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 N
AND LONGITUDE 68.3 W... ABOUT 376 NAUTICAL MILES OR 696 KM SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 961
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 22 9.00 PM 37.8N 68.3W 961 75 139
AUG 23 3.00 AM 40.0N 67.5W 965 75 139
AUG 23 9.00 AM 42.2N 65.4W 965 75 139
AUG 23 3.00 PM 44.2N 62.8W 970 70 130
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 980 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 47.8N 54.9W 985 60 111 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 990 50 93 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.5N 37.6W 995 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90.

HURRICANE WATCHES ARE CONTINUED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHERN CAPE BRETON WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KM/H
WITH GUSTS TO 140.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA
SCOTIA.. EASTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 100.

STORM IMPACTS:

RAINFALL...
ON SUNDAY THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA GIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75 TO 100 MM OVER NOVA
SCOTIA..PEI AND NEWFOUNDLAND EXCEPT FOR NOVA SCOTIA WHERE LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 150 MM ARE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT.. LOCAL FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND LEAD TO STANDING WATER PRESENTING A HAZARD TO
MOTORISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET
FLOODING..ROAD WASHOUTS AND FLOODED BASEMENTS.

WINDS...
WITH STRONG EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER NOVA SCOTIA WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE SOME TREE BRANCHES BREAKING AND POSSIBLE DOWNED
UTILITY LINES. PLEASE STAY TUNED IN THE EVENT THAT THE STORM
BEHAVIOR CHANGES WHERE THE WIND THREAT COULD INCREASE.

COASTAL SURF AND SURGE...
A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE (OF 0.5 TO 1.0 METRES) AND HEAVY
SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND (FROM LARGE WAVES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 METRES)
IS EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION
AND DAMAGE TO DOCKS AS WELL AS GENERATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AT LOCAL BEACHES. IT IS WORTHY TO NOTE THAT SPRING TIDES ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE WEEKEND..INCREASING THE THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING.

SPECTATORS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE SHORELINE
DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST BULLETINS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK.
LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY BILL OVER OFFSHORE WATERS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 14 METRES SOUTH OF THE TRACK. FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN
THE LOCAL SEA STATE FORECASTS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS IN BILL HAVE
DECREASED.. BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE.
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE ASSESSMENT.. THE
INTENSITY IS 75 KNOTS OR 140 KMH.

THE FAVOURABLE FACTORS DRIVING BILL INDICATE THAT IT WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THIS EVENING BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. THE TRACK IS MAINTAINED CLOSE TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTRE TRACK AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY.


B. PROGNOSTIC
HURRICANE BILL WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
OVER COLDER WATER ON SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
THE NHC TRACK WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACKS.
OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS ENHANCED BY
THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONSISTENT TRACK AND INTENSITY AS WELL.

WE EXPECT EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE AMBIENT
TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IMPLIES THAT BILL WILL RETAIN TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LONGER THAN USUAL. IT IS ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE THAT
BILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION BASED ON QUIKSCAT IMAGERY.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER ASSOCIATED
THE ANTICIPATED TROPICAL NATURE OF BILL AND ITS DELAYED TRANSITION
TO POST TROPICAL WILL LIKELY DICTATE A CLOSE-TO-TRACK RAINFALL
MAXIMUM OVER NOVA SCOTIA.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/06Z 245 230 140 175 100 105 65 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 220 235 160 160 95 110 75 65 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 0
24/06Z 210 240 180 160 95 95 55 50 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 210 245 180 160 50 35 20 20 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END ROUSSEL/FOGARTY/BOWYER/CAMPBELL/BORGEL




WOCN31 CWHX 221800
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Saturday
22 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

...Large hurricane Bill to impact Nova Scotia and portions of pei...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 36.0 N
And longitude 68.8 W... About 296 nautical miles or 548 km
Northwest of Bermuda . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
85 knots... 157 km/h... And central pressure at 965 MB. Bill is
Moving north at 20 knots... 37 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 22 3.00 PM 36.0N 68.8W 965 85 157
Aug 22 9.00 PM 38.0N 68.0W 965 85 157
Aug 23 3.00 AM 40.1N 67.1W 970 80 148
Aug 23 9.00 AM 42.1N 65.3W 980 75 139
Aug 23 3.00 PM 44.2N 62.6W 983 70 130
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 987 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 47.4N 54.8W 990 60 111 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 997 50 93 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.5N 43.8W 997 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.3N 37.5W 988 45 83 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 51.0N 32.5W 993 40 74 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Atlantic coastal Nova
Scotia with wind speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

Tropical storm warnings have been extended to include eastern
mainland Nova Scotia and Southern Cape Breton with wind speeds
Of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

Hurricane watches are continued for eastern mainland Nova Scotia
And Southern Cape Breton with potential wind speeds of 120 km/h
With gusts to 140.

Tropical storm watches have been issued for the remainder of nova
Scotia.. Eastern Prince Edward Island and the southern half of
Newfoundland with potential wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100.

Storm impacts:

Rainfall...
On Sunday the centre of hurricane Bill is expected to pass just south
of Nova Scotia giving rainfall amounts of 75 to 100 mm over nova
Scotia..Pei and Newfoundland except for Nova Scotia where local
Amounts up to 150 mm are possible. As a result.. Local flooding
Can be expected in flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce
visibilities and lead to standing water presenting a hazard to
motorists. Heavy rainfall has the potential to cause street
Flooding..Road washouts and flooded basements.

Winds...
With strong east to northeasterly winds over Nova Scotia we are
likely to see some tree branches breaking and possible downed
Utility lines. Please stay tuned in the event that the storm
Behavior changes where the wind threat could increase.

Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge and heavy surf along the Atlantic coast
of Nova Scotia and Southern Newfoundland (from large waves
Ranging from 2 to 5 metres) is expected. Waves could reach 8 metres
over Southeastern Newfoundland. These conditions may lead to
shoreline erosion and damage to docks as well as generate dangerous
rip currents at local beaches. It is worthy to note that spring
Tides are occuring over the weekend..Increasing the threat of
Coastal flooding.

Spectators are advised to keep a safe distance from the shoreline
Due to the rapid approach of large waves.

Further details are available in the public forecast bulletins.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect near and south of
The hurricane track with wind speeds in the range of 65 to 75 knots.
Storm warnings are in effect for areas just north of the track.
Large waves generated by Bill over offshore waters will range from
10 to 14 metres south of the track. Further details are available in
the local sea state forecasts.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

Satellite pictures indicate that the highest winds in Bill have
Decreased.. But the overall cloud pattern remains very impressive.
According to the national hurricane centre assessment.. The
Intensity is 85 knots or 157 kmh.

An airforce plane is scheduled to fly through Bill later today
For more accurate data to determine the latest intensity and wind
radii. The favourable factors driving Bill indicate that it will
maintain its intensity today but a gradual weakening is anticipated
tonight and Sunday. The track is maintained close to the national
hurricane centre track as well as its intensity.


B. Prognostic
Hurricane Bill will maintain its intensity for the next
12 hours then weaken gradually as it moves northeastward
Over colder water on Sunday. We continue to follow
The nhc track which is consistent with the previous tracks.
Our confidence in the track and intensity is enhanced by
The numerical models consistent track and intensity as well.

We expect extra tropical transition to be delayed until Sunday
Night given that the hurricane will remain embedded in the ambient
tropical airmass that has been present over Eastern Canada for
several days. This implies that Bill will retain tropical
characteristics longer than usual. It is also worthy of note that
Bill has a large circulation based on quikscat imagery.

C. Public weather associated
The anticipated tropical nature of Bill and its delayed transition
To post tropical will likely dictate a close-to-track rainfall
maximum over Nova Scotia.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
22/18Z 265 215 140 190 105 105 55 80 85 40 25 30
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/06Z 245 230 140 175 100 105 65 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 220 235 160 160 95 110 75 65 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 30
24/06Z 210 240 180 160 95 95 55 50 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 210 245 180 160 50 35 20 20 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


End roussel/fogarty/bowyer

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #17











000
WTNT33 KNHC 222114
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 30...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

CORRECTED TO CHANGE PORT LAWRENCE TO FORT LAWRENCE IN TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA

...BILL EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI AND HAS
EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE
NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...
480 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 585
MILES...940 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS
BILL MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...AND NEAR 1 INCH OVER OUTER
CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE LARGE SWELLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE
ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.1N 68.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT43 KNHC 222034
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED AND SURVEYED HURRICANE BILL AND
ALTHOUGH IT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...THE
SURFACE WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE HAVE DECREASED...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 4.0 AND 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WITH COLD WATERS AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT
48 HOURS AFTER THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 21 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA IN 24 HOURS AND VERY NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND
BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 37.1N 68.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 40.2N 67.6W 75 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 44.2N 63.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 48.0N 54.5W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 50.0N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1800Z 52.0N 20.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1800Z 57.0N 7.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1800Z 64.0N 2.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #16

Emergency Measures Organization
Severe weather advisory issued (09/08/21)
NB 1180

Aug. 21, 2009

FREDERICTON (CNB) - The following severe weather advisory is issued by the Department of Public Safety's Emergency Measures Organization on Friday, Aug. 21:

The track for Hurricane Bill has not yet developed sufficiently for the forecasting of detailed precipitation and wind implications for New Brunswick. However, given Bill's size, significant rainfall and strong winds can be expected, especially in the southern half of the province, with the southeast corner most likely to see the strongest weather. Guidance at this time suggests that southeastern areas could see 60-to-90 millimetres (two-to-four inches) of rain over a 12-to-18-hour period, while other southern areas could see 50-to-75 millimetres (two-to-three inches).

Rainfall in these amounts can result in rapid increases in water levels in streams and rivers, and in localized flash flooding. Power outages are also possible, as this storm has the potential to damage trees and overhead power lines.

Marine impacts, such as high seas and heavy surf, will occur well in advance of the storm's arrival. People should be particularly cautious in coastal areas because of high winds and dangerous surf.

People living or working along watercourses or coastal areas should take steps to protect their property and remain on alert until the storm has passed.

This advisory will be of particular concern to those who have been affected by similar storms in the past.

Environment Canada forecasts and warnings are available at: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/.

09/08/21

MEDIA CONTACT: New Brunswick Emergency Measures Organization, 506-453-2133.

09/08/21

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #15


WOCN31 CWHX 221800
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Saturday
22 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

...Large hurricane Bill to impact Nova Scotia and portions of pei...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 36.0 N
And longitude 68.8 W... About 296 nautical miles or 548 km
Northwest of Bermuda . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
85 knots... 157 km/h... And central pressure at 965 MB. Bill is
Moving north at 20 knots... 37 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 22 3.00 PM 36.0N 68.8W 965 85 157
Aug 22 9.00 PM 38.0N 68.0W 965 85 157
Aug 23 3.00 AM 40.1N 67.1W 970 80 148
Aug 23 9.00 AM 42.1N 65.3W 980 75 139
Aug 23 3.00 PM 44.2N 62.6W 983 70 130
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 987 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 47.4N 54.8W 990 60 111 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 997 50 93 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.5N 43.8W 997 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.3N 37.5W 988 45 83 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 51.0N 32.5W 993 40 74 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Atlantic coastal Nova
Scotia with wind speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

Tropical storm warnings have been extended to include eastern
mainland Nova Scotia and Southern Cape Breton with wind speeds
Of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

Hurricane watches are continued for eastern mainland Nova Scotia
And Southern Cape Breton with potential wind speeds of 120 km/h
With gusts to 140.

Tropical storm watches have been issued for the remainder of nova
Scotia.. Eastern Prince Edward Island and the southern half of
Newfoundland with potential wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100.

Storm impacts:

Rainfall...
On Sunday the centre of hurricane Bill is expected to pass just south
of Nova Scotia giving rainfall amounts of 75 to 100 mm over nova
Scotia..Pei and Newfoundland except for Nova Scotia where local
Amounts up to 150 mm are possible. As a result.. Local flooding
Can be expected in flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce
visibilities and lead to standing water presenting a hazard to
motorists. Heavy rainfall has the potential to cause street
Flooding..Road washouts and flooded basements.

Winds...
With strong east to northeasterly winds over Nova Scotia we are
likely to see some tree branches breaking and possible downed
Utility lines. Please stay tuned in the event that the storm
Behavior changes where the wind threat could increase.

Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge and heavy surf along the Atlantic coast
of Nova Scotia and Southern Newfoundland (from large waves
Ranging from 2 to 5 metres) is expected. Waves could reach 8 metres
over Southeastern Newfoundland. These conditions may lead to
shoreline erosion and damage to docks as well as generate dangerous
rip currents at local beaches. It is worthy to note that spring
Tides are occuring over the weekend..Increasing the threat of
Coastal flooding.

Spectators are advised to keep a safe distance from the shoreline
Due to the rapid approach of large waves.

Further details are available in the public forecast bulletins.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect near and south of
The hurricane track with wind speeds in the range of 65 to 75 knots.
Storm warnings are in effect for areas just north of the track.
Large waves generated by Bill over offshore waters will range from
10 to 14 metres south of the track. Further details are available in
the local sea state forecasts.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

Satellite pictures indicate that the highest winds in Bill have
Decreased.. But the overall cloud pattern remains very impressive.
According to the national hurricane centre assessment.. The
Intensity is 85 knots or 157 kmh.

An airforce plane is scheduled to fly through Bill later today
For more accurate data to determine the latest intensity and wind
radii. The favourable factors driving Bill indicate that it will
maintain its intensity today but a gradual weakening is anticipated
tonight and Sunday. The track is maintained close to the national
hurricane centre track as well as its intensity.


B. Prognostic
Hurricane Bill will maintain its intensity for the next
12 hours then weaken gradually as it moves northeastward
Over colder water on Sunday. We continue to follow
The nhc track which is consistent with the previous tracks.
Our confidence in the track and intensity is enhanced by
The numerical models consistent track and intensity as well.

We expect extra tropical transition to be delayed until Sunday
Night given that the hurricane will remain embedded in the ambient
tropical airmass that has been present over Eastern Canada for
several days. This implies that Bill will retain tropical
characteristics longer than usual. It is also worthy of note that
Bill has a large circulation based on quikscat imagery.

C. Public weather associated
The anticipated tropical nature of Bill and its delayed transition
To post tropical will likely dictate a close-to-track rainfall
maximum over Nova Scotia.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
22/18Z 265 215 140 190 105 105 55 80 85 40 25 30
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/06Z 245 230 140 175 100 105 65 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 220 235 160 160 95 110 75 65 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 30
24/06Z 210 240 180 160 95 95 55 50 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 210 245 180 160 50 35 20 20 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


End roussel/fogarty/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 221800
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SATURDAY
22 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...LARGE HURRICANE BILL TO IMPACT NOVA SCOTIA AND PORTIONS OF PEI...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 N
AND LONGITUDE 68.8 W... ABOUT 296 NAUTICAL MILES OR 548 KM
NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
85 KNOTS... 157 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB. BILL IS
MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 22 3.00 PM 36.0N 68.8W 965 85 157
AUG 22 9.00 PM 38.0N 68.0W 965 85 157
AUG 23 3.00 AM 40.1N 67.1W 970 80 148
AUG 23 9.00 AM 42.1N 65.3W 980 75 139
AUG 23 3.00 PM 44.2N 62.6W 983 70 130
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 47.4N 54.8W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 997 50 93 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.5N 43.8W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.3N 37.5W 988 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 51.0N 32.5W 993 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE EASTERN
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN CAPE BRETON WITH WIND SPEEDS
OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90.

HURRICANE WATCHES ARE CONTINUED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHERN CAPE BRETON WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KM/H
WITH GUSTS TO 140.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA
SCOTIA.. EASTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 100.

STORM IMPACTS:

RAINFALL...
ON SUNDAY THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA GIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75 TO 100 MM OVER NOVA
SCOTIA..PEI AND NEWFOUNDLAND EXCEPT FOR NOVA SCOTIA WHERE LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 150 MM ARE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT.. LOCAL FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND LEAD TO STANDING WATER PRESENTING A HAZARD TO
MOTORISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET
FLOODING..ROAD WASHOUTS AND FLOODED BASEMENTS.

WINDS...
WITH STRONG EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER NOVA SCOTIA WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE SOME TREE BRANCHES BREAKING AND POSSIBLE DOWNED
UTILITY LINES. PLEASE STAY TUNED IN THE EVENT THAT THE STORM
BEHAVIOR CHANGES WHERE THE WIND THREAT COULD INCREASE.

COASTAL SURF AND SURGE...
A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND (FROM LARGE WAVES
RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 METRES) IS EXPECTED. WAVES COULD REACH 8 METRES
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO DOCKS AS WELL AS GENERATE DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES. IT IS WORTHY TO NOTE THAT SPRING
TIDES ARE OCCURING OVER THE WEEKEND..INCREASING THE THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING.

SPECTATORS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE SHORELINE
DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST BULLETINS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK.
LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY BILL OVER OFFSHORE WATERS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 14 METRES SOUTH OF THE TRACK. FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN
THE LOCAL SEA STATE FORECASTS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS IN BILL HAVE
DECREASED.. BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE.
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE ASSESSMENT.. THE
INTENSITY IS 85 KNOTS OR 157 KMH.

AN AIRFORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO FLY THROUGH BILL LATER TODAY
FOR MORE ACCURATE DATA TO DETERMINE THE LATEST INTENSITY AND WIND
RADII. THE FAVOURABLE FACTORS DRIVING BILL INDICATE THAT IT WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY TODAY BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE TRACK IS MAINTAINED CLOSE TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTRE TRACK AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY.


B. PROGNOSTIC
HURRICANE BILL WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
OVER COLDER WATER ON SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
THE NHC TRACK WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACKS.
OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS ENHANCED BY
THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONSISTENT TRACK AND INTENSITY AS WELL.

WE EXPECT EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE AMBIENT
TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IMPLIES THAT BILL WILL RETAIN TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LONGER THAN USUAL. IT IS ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE THAT
BILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION BASED ON QUIKSCAT IMAGERY.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER ASSOCIATED
THE ANTICIPATED TROPICAL NATURE OF BILL AND ITS DELAYED TRANSITION
TO POST TROPICAL WILL LIKELY DICTATE A CLOSE-TO-TRACK RAINFALL
MAXIMUM OVER NOVA SCOTIA.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/18Z 265 215 140 190 105 105 55 80 85 40 25 30
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/06Z 245 230 140 175 100 105 65 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 220 235 160 160 95 110 75 65 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 30
24/06Z 210 240 180 160 95 95 55 50 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 210 245 180 160 50 35 20 20 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END ROUSSEL/FOGARTY/BOWYER

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 221744
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...HURRICANE BILL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM
CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX
COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND AROUND
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE IN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY TO CHARLESVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO ARNOLDS COVE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC..THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES...
595 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND BERMUDA...AN NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...36.0N 68.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Bill Moves Away From Bermuda Heads Towards Nova Scotia





000
WTNT33 KNHC 221455
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...HURRICANE BILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY
EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY...A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM
VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO ARNOLDS COVE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...
700 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 710 MILES...1140
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND BERMUDA...AN NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...35.1N 68.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT43 KNHC 221442
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BILL HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 85 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE COULD
BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK BILL THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. BILL
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TODAY BUT WITH COLD WATERS
AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AND BY 72 HOURS
BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO RECURVE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY
PACKED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
IN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR EASTERN REGIONS OF CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 35.1N 68.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 38.0N 68.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 42.5N 65.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 46.0N 59.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 49.5N 49.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1200Z 52.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1200Z 58.0N 9.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1200Z 63.0N 5.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Blogging About Hurricane Bill #14





WOCN31 CWHX 221200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Saturday
22 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...On Sunday Bill will Nova Scotia and portions of pei...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 33.9 N
And longitude 68.6 W... About 215 nautical miles or 400 km
West northwest of Bermuda . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 90 knots... 167 km/h... And central pressure at 960
MB. Bill is moving north at 21 knots... 39 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.9N 68.6W 960 90 167
Aug 22 9.00 PM 38.0N 68.0W 963 95 176
Aug 23 9.00 AM 42.1N 65.3W 968 85 157
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 973 70 130 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 978 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.3N 37.5W 988 45 83 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 51.7N 27.5W 998 35 65 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 PM 53.3N 18.0W 999 30 56 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Tropical storm warnings will be issued shortly for portions
Of Southwestern Nova Scotia. Hurricane watches will be issued
For portion of Northeastern Nova Scotia. Tropical storm watches
Will be issued for the remainder of Nova Scotia and eastern
Prince Edward Island and Southwestern Newfoundland.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for all of Nova Scotia and
Eastern Prince Edward Island for Sunday as the rainbands from
Bill make their way onshore and inland. Rainfall guidance shows
A wide swath of rainfall amounts in the 75 to 100 mm range for
coastal Nova Scotia with local areas nearing 150 mm. Rainfall
Amounts decrease away from the coast.

On our current track.. Rainfall amounts should be lower across New
Brunswick.The outermost rainbands of Bill are forecast to reach
Southeastern New Brunswick on Sunday and rainfall amounts could be
high but just below warning criteria. There will be
An interaction between the leading rainbands of Bill and a cold
Front approaching from the north so rainfall totals could possibly
exceed 25 millimetres for some localities in New Brunswick.
Any future northward movement of the forecast track of Bill will
require adjustments to the spatial coverage of the rainfall warnings.

Bill will affect Newfoundland Sunday night giving rain at times
Heavy and strong winds to most regions. The potential
For 100 mm of rain exists for portions of Newfoundland.
The strongest winds will reach the south coast after midnight
potentially gusting to 110 km/h on the Burin and
Avalon peninsulas overnight Sunday into early Monday. Winds in
The Wreckhouse area could possibly gust to 120 km/h Sunday
Evening.

Based on the current forecast track and intensity..
Tropical storm force winds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90 will
Affect most of Nova Scotia and portions of pei and tropical
Storm watch and warnings will be issued later today.
Later on Sunday hurricane force winds of 120 km/h with gusts to 140
are expected to affect the eastern shore and Southern Cape Breton
And hurricane watches will be issued for those regions later today.

Swell waves will continue to grow and move rapidly to the
Coast of Nova Scotia today and tonight. This will generate
Rough surf and possible life-threatening rip currents along
Some of Nova Scotia beaches. As hurricane Bill moves by the
Nova Scotia coastline on Sunday breaking wave heights could
Possibly reach 5 metres putting coastal infrastructure and
Human life at risk.

Swell heights on the coast of Newfoundland will not start to
Build until Sunday and will possibly exceed 2 metres on the
South coast by midnight Sunday as Bill approaches. The larger
Waves will arrive on the Newfoundland shores late Sunday night
Or early Monday.

Some of the highest spring tides of the year will occur this
Weekend in Atlantic Canada and these high tides combined with
The large waves and possible storm surge could cause some
Damage to coastal infrastructure. The exact timing of the high
Tides to the arrival of the hurricane will be crucial especially
For Southeastern Newfoundland and it is too early to pin those
numbers down.

Residents of and visitors to Nova Scotia are advised to exercise
extreme caution if venturing near the coastline today and Sunday
Due to the life threatening wave conditions. The same caution
Applies to residents of and visitors to Newfoundland on Sunday.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Early today hurricane force to gale force wind warnings will be
issued for the southern maritime waters. Appropriate warnings
Will be issued for the Newfoundland waters as well. Storm force
Wind warnings will be issued for the southern marine areas of
Newfoundland by the Newfoundland and Labrador weather office for
Sunday evening.

Bill is expected to enter the waters of the Maritimes as a
Hurricane early Sunday morning. The core of hurricane force winds
Is expected to move along the western slope waters Sunday
Morning passing just south of Cape Breton Sunday evening. Bill will
pass over Southeastern Newfoundland Sunday night then move
Away from the Avalon Peninsula on Monday.

Significant wave heights of up to 14 metres will move onto the
Scotian shelf on Sunday and waves of up to 10 metres will
Move onto the Southwestern Grand Banks on Monday. Waves of up to
8 metres will reach the Northern Grand Banks late on Monday.
For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia strong surf and waves possibly
exceeding 5 to 7 metres will impact certain areas. For coastal
Newfoundland waves also may exceed 6 to 8 metres especially south
To southwest facing coastlines from the Burin Peninsula to cape
Race.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

We continue to follow the national hurricane center lead on positions
and strength of hurricane Bill throughout the period.

Hurricane Bill passed west of Bermuda today. A weather
Station on the island reported a wind gust to 156 km/h. Bill also
passed east of buoy 41048 during the night. Peak winds at the buoy
were 54 knots and the maximum significant wave height reported
Was 8.3 metres. These two observations along with a convenient
quikscat pass were very useful in determining the wind radii tables.
We have high confidence in the table at the moment.

The satellite presentation of Bill shows an outer eyewall trying to
contract toward the centre of the storm. The opportunity for
strenghtening still exists but that window is closing.

A hurricane hunter aircraft reported maximum flight wind of 121
Knots in the ne quadrant and 103 knots in the southeastern quadrant.
They also reported that the inner eyewall has dissipated.

B. Prognostic

The just west of a due north track of Bill has continued for the
Last 6 hours. This keeps the confidence in the further offshore
Track forecast reasonable high. The model tracks remain tightly
clustered off the coast of Nova Scotia and across the southern
portions of Newfoundland.

We maintain the current intensity of Bill for the first 12 to 18
hours as Bill continues to move over warm waters in a low shear
environment. Beyond thenext 18 hours the sea surface temperatures
begin to cool quite quickly and shear should begin to take its toll.
Whether Bill is still a hurricane when its reaches the Avalon
Peninsula remains to be seen. Beyond that.. Bill should race ahead
Of the upper trough into the Atlantic with little extratropical
development.

Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extratropical transition late on the 23rd and will be completed
On the 24th.

C. Public weather

As the storm begins transitioning on Sunday we should be seeing
The rain shield extending to the left and forward of track and
The wind field starting to expand away from the storm centre.
For New Brunswick a predecessor rain band associated with
The hurricane will form today and pulses of rain associated
With it may give rain amounts exceeding 25 mm.

Although the reg Gem rain field is displaced too far to the north and
west based on our storm positions its overall rainfall amount
guidance is quite good. Both the gfs and nam have small pockets
Of 5 inches or more of qpf. Rainfall amounts over coastal Nova Scotia
appear to be on the order of 100 mm for a significant portion and
local amounts of 150 mm are not unreasonable. Rainfall amounts
diminish proportionally inland.

Rainfall will not be an issue for the island of Newfoundland until
day 2 night and will be given further consideration with the 12Z
model runs.

D. Marine weather

As Bill undergoes extratropical transition and weakens in our
Waters we maintain the gale force wind radii but shrink the
Storm force and hurricane force winds in the nw and sw quadrants
To show the switch to the right of track of the wind field.

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
22/12Z 275 210 140 190 105 105 55 80 90 40 25 30
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 30
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


End nickerson/roussel




WOCN31 CWHX 221200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SATURDAY
22 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...ON SUNDAY BILL WILL NOVA SCOTIA AND PORTIONS OF PEI...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 N
AND LONGITUDE 68.6 W... ABOUT 215 NAUTICAL MILES OR 400 KM
WEST NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 960
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTH AT 21 KNOTS... 39 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.9N 68.6W 960 90 167
AUG 22 9.00 PM 38.0N 68.0W 963 95 176
AUG 23 9.00 AM 42.1N 65.3W 968 85 157
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 973 70 130 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 978 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.3N 37.5W 988 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 51.7N 27.5W 998 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 PM 53.3N 18.0W 999 30 56 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. HURRICANE WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA AND EASTERN
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
EASTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FOR SUNDAY AS THE RAINBANDS FROM
BILL MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE AND INLAND. RAINFALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A WIDE SWATH OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 75 TO 100 MM RANGE FOR
COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA WITH LOCAL AREAS NEARING 150 MM. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DECREASE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

ON OUR CURRENT TRACK.. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOWER ACROSS NEW
BRUNSWICK.THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK ON SUNDAY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGH BUT JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THERE WILL BE
AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LEADING RAINBANDS OF BILL AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SO RAINFALL TOTALS COULD POSSIBLY
EXCEED 25 MILLIMETRES FOR SOME LOCALITIES IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ANY FUTURE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OF BILL WILL
REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL WARNINGS.

BILL WILL AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING RAIN AT TIMES
HEAVY AND STRONG WINDS TO MOST REGIONS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR 100 MM OF RAIN EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REACH THE SOUTH COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 110 KM/H ON THE BURIN AND
AVALON PENINSULAS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS IN
THE WRECKHOUSE AREA COULD POSSIBLY GUST TO 120 KM/H SUNDAY
EVENING.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY..
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90 WILL
AFFECT MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PORTIONS OF PEI AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
LATER ON SUNDAY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 120 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 140
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHERN CAPE BRETON
AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE REGIONS LATER TODAY.

SWELL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GENERATE
ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME OF NOVA SCOTIA BEACHES. AS HURRICANE BILL MOVES BY THE
NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE ON SUNDAY BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
POSSIBLY REACH 5 METRES PUTTING COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND
HUMAN LIFE AT RISK.

SWELL HEIGHTS ON THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND WILL NOT START TO
BUILD UNTIL SUNDAY AND WILL POSSIBLY EXCEED 2 METRES ON THE
SOUTH COAST BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS BILL APPROACHES. THE LARGER
WAVES WILL ARRIVE ON THE NEWFOUNDLAND SHORES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY.

SOME OF THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDES OF THE YEAR WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND IN ATLANTIC CANADA AND THESE HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH
THE LARGE WAVES AND POSSIBLE STORM SURGE COULD CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE TO COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE HIGH
TIDES TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE CRUCIAL ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN THOSE
NUMBERS DOWN.

RESIDENTS OF AND VISITORS TO NOVA SCOTIA ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING NEAR THE COASTLINE TODAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO THE LIFE THREATENING WAVE CONDITIONS. THE SAME CAUTION
APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF AND VISITORS TO NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
EARLY TODAY HURRICANE FORCE TO GALE FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS. APPROPRIATE WARNINGS
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS AS WELL. STORM FORCE
WIND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE FOR
SUNDAY EVENING.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS OF THE MARITIMES AS A
HURRICANE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE BRETON SUNDAY EVENING. BILL WILL
PASS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 14 METRES WILL MOVE ONTO THE
SCOTIAN SHELF ON SUNDAY AND WAVES OF UP TO 10 METRES WILL
MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS ON MONDAY. WAVES OF UP TO
8 METRES WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS LATE ON MONDAY.
FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA STRONG SURF AND WAVES POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 5 TO 7 METRES WILL IMPACT CERTAIN AREAS. FOR COASTAL
NEWFOUNDLAND WAVES ALSO MAY EXCEED 6 TO 8 METRES ESPECIALLY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FACING COASTLINES FROM THE BURIN PENINSULA TO CAPE
RACE.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LEAD ON POSITIONS
AND STRENGTH OF HURRICANE BILL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

HURRICANE BILL PASSED WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY. A WEATHER
STATION ON THE ISLAND REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 156 KM/H. BILL ALSO
PASSED EAST OF BUOY 41048 DURING THE NIGHT. PEAK WINDS AT THE BUOY
WERE 54 KNOTS AND THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT REPORTED
WAS 8.3 METRES. THESE TWO OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A CONVENIENT
QUIKSCAT PASS WERE VERY USEFUL IN DETERMINING THE WIND RADII TABLES.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TABLE AT THE MOMENT.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BILL SHOWS AN OUTER EYEWALL TRYING TO
CONTRACT TOWARD THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGHTENING STILL EXISTS BUT THAT WINDOW IS CLOSING.

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT WIND OF 121
KNOTS IN THE NE QUADRANT AND 103 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THEY ALSO REPORTED THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE JUST WEST OF A DUE NORTH TRACK OF BILL HAS CONTINUED FOR THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THIS KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK FORECAST REASONABLE HIGH. THE MODEL TRACKS REMAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

WE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF BILL FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS AS BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND THENEXT 18 HOURS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO COOL QUITE QUICKLY AND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL.
WHETHER BILL IS STILL A HURRICANE WHEN ITS REACHES THE AVALON
PENINSULA REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BEYOND THAT.. BILL SHOULD RACE AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE EXTRATROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED
ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

AS THE STORM BEGINS TRANSITIONING ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE SEEING
THE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDING TO THE LEFT AND FORWARD OF TRACK AND
THE WIND FIELD STARTING TO EXPAND AWAY FROM THE STORM CENTRE.
FOR NEW BRUNSWICK A PREDECESSOR RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HURRICANE WILL FORM TODAY AND PULSES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH IT MAY GIVE RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 25 MM.

ALTHOUGH THE REG GEM RAIN FIELD IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND
WEST BASED ON OUR STORM POSITIONS ITS OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE GOOD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SMALL POCKETS
OF 5 INCHES OR MORE OF QPF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA
APPEAR TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 100 MM FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION AND
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 150 MM ARE NOT UNREASONABLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DIMINISH PROPORTIONALLY INLAND.

RAINFALL WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE ISLAND OF NEWFOUNDLAND UNTIL
DAY 2 NIGHT AND WILL BE GIVEN FURTHER CONSIDERATION WITH THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS.

D. MARINE WEATHER

AS BILL UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKENS IN OUR
WATERS WE MAINTAIN THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII BUT SHRINK THE
STORM FORCE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW AND SW QUADRANTS
TO SHOW THE SWITCH TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK OF THE WIND FIELD.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/12Z 275 210 140 190 105 105 55 80 90 40 25 30
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 30
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END NICKERSON/ROUSSEL

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 221132
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...BILL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 410 MILES...660 KM...
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
510 MILES...820 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE
BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF BILL MOVES NORTH
OF THE GULF STREAM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. BERMUDA IS STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 40 MPH...64 KM/HR...AT THIS TIME.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...34.0N 68.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA