Saturday, September 04, 2010

The Demise of Earl

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE WIND FIELD OF EARL HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW WELL REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER.  DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH EARL HAS BEEN ENTRAINED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  ALSO...THE EASTERN PORTION OF EARL/S
CIRCULATION IS NOW INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.  BASED ON ALL
OF THIS...EARL IS NOW DECLARED POST-TROPICAL...AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NHC ADVISORY ON EARL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS EARL
COMPLETES THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.
 
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE...AND IS NOW 030/40.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
POST-TROPICAL EARL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LABRADOR AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  EARL WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BECOMES A
VERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE CYCLONE BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND DISSIPATING IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
 
EARL IS STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA.  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL IN
CANADA...SEE PRODUCTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 50.7N  59.2W    55 KT...POST-TROPICAL 
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 52.9N  55.4W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 55.0N  52.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 57.0N  53.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 57.0N  55.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 54.0N  50.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 52.0N  36.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
...EARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT RACES ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.7N 59.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SW OF MARYS HARBOUR LABRADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NOVA
SCOTIA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO BOAT HARBOUR
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA. 
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL STORM EARL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST.  EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/HR.  THIS
MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...
SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT.  A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS NOW POST-TROPICAL...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
 
RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT OVER
THE REGION.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EARL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON EARL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN

Tropical Storm Earl Over Newfoundland Island Update 1

000
WTNT32 KNHC 042337
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...EARL RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.4N 60.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF CAPE WHITTLE QUEBEC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...75 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NOVA SCOTIA FROM POINT TUPPER AROUND CAPE BRETON TO BRULE
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA TO LOWER
DARNLEY
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BURGEO WESTWARD TO BOAT HARBOUR

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 250 MILES...400 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER EXTREME
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT OVER
THE REGION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

WOCN31 CWHX 0500
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.30 PM NDT Saturday
04 September 2010.

...Tropical storm Earl weakening as it crosses gulf waters...

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 AM NDT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.30 PM NDT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
50.0 N and longitude 58.9 W... About 50 nautical miles or 95 km
West southwest of daniels harbour . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 55 knots... 102 km/h... And central pressure at 972
MB. Earl is moving north northeast at 32 knots... 59 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 04  9.00 PM  50.0N  58.9W   972   55  102 transitioning
Sep 05  3.00 AM  52.7N  56.3W   975   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  9.00 AM  54.1N  54.5W   980   45   83 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 PM  55.1N  52.6W   985   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 05  9.00 PM  55.5N  50.7W   990   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 AM  55.2N  48.9W   992   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  9.00 AM  55.0N  47.1W   994   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 PM  55.0N  45.4W   995   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  9.00 PM  54.9N  43.8W   996   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 AM  54.8N  42.0W   998   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  9.00 AM  54.7N  40.1W   999   35   65 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for western and
Southwestern Newfoundland.


4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Gale and storm warnings are in effect for northeastern areas of the 
Maritimes marine district. Gale warnings are also in effect for 
portions of the Newfoundland marine district. Given the shift
In the track of Earl additional gales may be required.


5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
The centre of Earl has been analyzed from surface data through
The southern gulf of st.Lawrence. All convection has eroded on the 
south side of the storm and wind reports in excess of 60 knots are 
gone: so we hold it at 55 kts for the initial strength although
It may be a bit high.

B. Prognostic
The rapid translation speed of Saturday afternoon should slow down
As it passes into Southeastern Labrador in the first 6 hours and
Then we follow an average solution of the various models. This is all 
ahead of an approaching upper low and expecting the storm to fall 
under much weaker flow which eventually directs the storm to the 
east. This makes for a significant shift in forecast track: we no 
longer take it into the Labrador Sea but rather continue it
Eastward into the open Atlantic.


C. Public weather
Still a moderate to heavy band of rain affecting western areas of 
Newfoundland. Given the fast forward speed of Earl conditions
Should improve later tonight.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         Ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw
05/00Z  250 250 250 250   150 150 150 150     0   0   0   0
05/06Z  250 250 250 250   150 150 150 150     0   0   0   0
05/12Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/00Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/06Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/12Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/00Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/06Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/12Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


End bowyer/fogarty/March


WOCN31 CWHX 042100
Tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement issued
By the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at
5.50 PM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

At 6.00 PM ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
47.8 N and longitude 61.7 W... About 20 nautical miles or 40 km
North of iles de la Madeleine.

Earl is moving towards the north northeast at 45 knots... 83
Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 55 knots... 102
Km/h and central pressure at 970 MB.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

Here is a brief recap of what has occured so far.

Peak winds over 100 km/h up to 5PM ADT ...

   Km/h
Beaver Island  135
McNabs Island  130
Obsborne head  128
Halifax harbour buoy 122
Halifax airport  120
West Scotian Slope buoy 119
Shearwater jetty 117
Bedford Basin  115
St. Paul island  113
Lunenburg  111
Antigonish Harbour 110
Halifax dockyard 109
Hart Island  109
Caribou Point  108
Grand Etang  115
Baccaro Point  102
Port Hawkesbury  100
Browns Bank buoy 100

Notable rainfall amounts up to 5PM ADT ...
New Brunswick ... The combination of Earl's rainfall enhanced by an 
approaching cold front brought 40-75 mm through western NB.

Nova Scotia ... Annapolis Valley through Southern Colchester
Counties received 40-50 mm especially in the interior.

Prince Edward Island ... Much of the island received 25-30 mm.

Wave reports during the day suggest that 10-14 m significant wave 
heights may have washed along much of the Atlantic shore of nova
Scotia this afternoon ... With peak waves arriving well after the 
storm centre.

End bowyer/fogarty


WOCN31 CWHX 041800
Tropical storm Earl information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2.35 PM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 6.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
46.0 N and longitude 63.2 W... About 15 nautical miles or 35 km
South of Charlottetown . Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 55 knots... 102 km/h... And central pressure at 966 MB. Earl is
Moving north northeast at 40 knots... 74 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 04  3.00 PM  46.0N  63.2W   966   55  102
Sep 05  3.00 AM  52.7N  56.4W   975   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 PM  55.3N  55.0W   985   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 AM  57.4N  56.5W   990   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 PM  58.8N  59.3W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 AM  60.0N  61.5W   993   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 PM  59.8N  63.0W   995   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 08  3.00 AM  62.4N  65.9W   997   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 08  3.00 PM  63.6N  68.1W   999   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 AM  64.8N  70.3W  1001   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 PM  66.0N  72.5W  1003   35   65 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

 Earl made landfall as a category one hurrricane in Nova Scotia
Near the Shelburne Queens counties boundary ... About 85 km
Southwest of Lunenburg ... Around 10:30 AM ADT.

 Peak winds of hurricane force were received from numerous observing 
sites within the Halifax regional municipality and harbour with a 
maximum of 130 km/h reported from McNabs Island. Beaver Island 
reported 135 km/h peak winds at 1PM ADT. Halifax international 
airport gusted to 120 km/h for two consecutive hours. Ns power 
reported well over one hundred thousand customers lost power.

 The highest winds for Eastern Prince Edward Island will be
Occurring for the next few hours. Gales are now expected to brush 
along Western Newfoundland this evening and wind warnings will
Follow for those areas.

 Rainfall amounts varied from less than 25 mm along the Atlantic 
coast of Nova Scotia to 35-45 mm for portions of Western Nova Scotia 
and in New Brunswick where rain was enhanced ahead of an approaching 
cold front.

Hurricane watch in effect for Eastern Halifax county and Guysborough
County.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for central and eastern 
mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton. Tropical storm warnings also
In effect for central and eastern p.I.E. And the magdelan islands. 
Some of these warnings may be ended within a few hours.

The tides are running low (neap) ... And combined with the storm 
arrival near daily low tide the threat of storm surge damage is low. 
Halifax harbour reported a surge of 1.2 metres and Northumberland
Strait averaged 0.8 m ... All without impact because of the low tide.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

 Peak marine winds reported included 64 knots at buoy b44024 in
West Scotian Slope and 66 knots at the Halifax harbour buoy. The
West Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant wave 
heights at 11 AM ADT.

 All hurricane force wind warnings have ended. Storm and gale force 
wind warnings remain in effect for many maritime and Western
Newfoundland waters.

High waves and pounding surf can be expected primarily along south 
and southeast facing coastlines.

5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists

A. Analysis Earl is well inland now and we are fixing positions from
hourly
Land station data. Hurricane force gusts continue being reported 
along the Atlantic coast well to the southeast of the storm centre.

 The cloud shield thinned considerably during the late morning and 
early afternoon with public reports of sunny breaks over western
Nova Scotia since the storm passage. Drier air and mostly clear
Skies are pushing into Western Nova Scotia at bulletin time.

B. Prognostic we are using extrapolation for the next 6-8 hours and
then merge
The solution with the previous medium and longer range solution.
The storm should maintain forward motion of about 40 kts and then 
slow prior to turning left tonight and Sunday over Labrador. The 
early track guidance still maintains a bit of a bifurcation in the 
solution set so we have chosen to not mmake big changes at this time. 
Having said that the majority of solutions are for the storm centre
To continue east into the Atlantic ... So our solution may be
On the pessimistic side for Newfoundland and Labrador waters.

C. Public weather
We should be near the end of hurricane force gusts as the storm
Both weakens and transitions. The heaviest rains may still lie
Ahead for portions of New Brunswick as the back edge of the 
deformation field pushes in.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         Ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw
04/18Z  220 220 120  60    90 120  60   0     0   0   0   0
05/06Z  270 300 220  90    60  60  30   0     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  300 300 220 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/06Z  270 270 220 150     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  220 220 220 180     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/06Z  180 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/18Z  140 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/06Z  100 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/18Z   60 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
09/06Z   20 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
09/18Z    0 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

End bowyer/fogarty


WOCN31 CWHX 041500
Tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement issued by
The Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 11.49 AM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

 At 12 noon ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
44.5 N and longitude 64.2 W... Near Chester Nova Scotia.

 Earl began rapid acceleration this morning and is now moving
Northeast at 40 knots ... 74 km/h. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 60 knots... 111 km/h and central pressure at 960 MB. 
Earl is now a strong tropical storm which began the transition to
A post-tropical storm in the last couple of hours.

 Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia near the Shelburne Queens
Counties boundary ... About 85 km southwest of Lunenburg ...
Around 10:30 AM ADT.

 There is conflicting information as to whether Earl was a strong 
tropical storm or a hurricane at landfall. These details will be
Sorted out in a post-storm analysis ... However the difference 
between the two is only 8 km/h in terms of maximum wind speeds which 
is easily within meteorological observation errors.

The following peak wind reports were received:

Baccaro Point 102 km/h ... 8 AM ADT
Western Head 98 km/h ... 10 AM ADT
Lunenburg 111 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Obsborne head 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
McNabs Island 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Bedford Basin 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Halifax airport 111 km/h ... 11.43 AM ADT
Beaver Island 104 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Browns Bank buoy ... 100 km/h
West Scotian Slope buoy ... 119 km/h.

The west Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant
Wave heights at 11 AM ADT.

Reports received of more than 70 thousand customers with power 
outages.

 Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End bowyer/fogarty

Tropical Storm Earl Over PEI Update 5

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
CYCLONE IS BECOMING A LITTLE BIT ASYMMETRIC AND THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPANDING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER FOR SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE CYCLONE. THIS MEANS THAT EARL STILL
IS RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND
BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 47.5N  62.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 52.0N  58.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 55.0N  55.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 55.7N  51.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 57.0N  51.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
...LARGE TROPICAL STORM EARL OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.5N 62.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM BURGEO WESTWARD TO BOAT HARBOUR NEWFOUNDLAND.
 
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
FROM PORTERS LAKE TO POINT TUPPER...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO MARGARETSVILLE...MEDWAY HARBOUR
TO POINT TUPPER...AND TIDNISH TO BRULE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM POINT TUPPER AROUND CAPE BRETON TO BRULE
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA TO LOWER
DARNLEY
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BURGEO WESTWARD TO BOAT HARBOUR
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT OVER
THE REGION.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
 
NNNN


Tropical Storm Earl Over Nova Scotia & PEI Update 4

WOCN31 CWHX 041800
Tropical storm Earl information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2.35 PM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 6.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
46.0 N and longitude 63.2 W... About 15 nautical miles or 35 km
South of Charlottetown . Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 55 knots... 102 km/h... And central pressure at 966 MB. Earl is
Moving north northeast at 40 knots... 74 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 04  3.00 PM  46.0N  63.2W   966   55  102
Sep 05  3.00 AM  52.7N  56.4W   975   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 PM  55.3N  55.0W   985   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 AM  57.4N  56.5W   990   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 PM  58.8N  59.3W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 AM  60.0N  61.5W   993   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 PM  59.8N  63.0W   995   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 08  3.00 AM  62.4N  65.9W   997   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 08  3.00 PM  63.6N  68.1W   999   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 AM  64.8N  70.3W  1001   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 PM  66.0N  72.5W  1003   35   65 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

 Earl made landfall as a category one hurrricane in Nova Scotia
Near the Shelburne Queens counties boundary ... About 85 km
Southwest of Lunenburg ... Around 10:30 AM ADT.

 Peak winds of hurricane force were received from numerous observing 
sites within the Halifax regional municipality and harbour with a 
maximum of 130 km/h reported from McNabs Island. Beaver Island 
reported 135 km/h peak winds at 1PM ADT. Halifax international 
airport gusted to 120 km/h for two consecutive hours. Ns power 
reported well over one hundred thousand customers lost power.

 The highest winds for Eastern Prince Edward Island will be
Occurring for the next few hours. Gales are now expected to brush 
along Western Newfoundland this evening and wind warnings will
Follow for those areas.

 Rainfall amounts varied from less than 25 mm along the Atlantic 
coast of Nova Scotia to 35-45 mm for portions of Western Nova Scotia 
and in New Brunswick where rain was enhanced ahead of an approaching 
cold front.

Hurricane watch in effect for Eastern Halifax county and Guysborough
County.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for central and eastern 
mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton. Tropical storm warnings also
In effect for central and eastern p.I.E. And the magdelan islands. 
Some of these warnings may be ended within a few hours.

The tides are running low (neap) ... And combined with the storm 
arrival near daily low tide the threat of storm surge damage is low. 
Halifax harbour reported a surge of 1.2 metres and Northumberland
Strait averaged 0.8 m ... All without impact because of the low tide.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

 Peak marine winds reported included 64 knots at buoy b44024 in
West Scotian Slope and 66 knots at the Halifax harbour buoy. The
West Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant wave 
heights at 11 AM ADT.

 All hurricane force wind warnings have ended. Storm and gale force 
wind warnings remain in effect for many maritime and Western
Newfoundland waters.

High waves and pounding surf can be expected primarily along south 
and southeast facing coastlines.

5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists

A. Analysis Earl is well inland now and we are fixing positions from
hourly
Land station data. Hurricane force gusts continue being reported 
along the Atlantic coast well to the southeast of the storm centre.

 The cloud shield thinned considerably during the late morning and 
early afternoon with public reports of sunny breaks over western
Nova Scotia since the storm passage. Drier air and mostly clear
Skies are pushing into Western Nova Scotia at bulletin time.

B. Prognostic we are using extrapolation for the next 6-8 hours and
then merge
The solution with the previous medium and longer range solution.
The storm should maintain forward motion of about 40 kts and then 
slow prior to turning left tonight and Sunday over Labrador. The 
early track guidance still maintains a bit of a bifurcation in the 
solution set so we have chosen to not mmake big changes at this time. 
Having said that the majority of solutions are for the storm centre
To continue east into the Atlantic ... So our solution may be
On the pessimistic side for Newfoundland and Labrador waters.

C. Public weather
We should be near the end of hurricane force gusts as the storm
Both weakens and transitions. The heaviest rains may still lie
Ahead for portions of New Brunswick as the back edge of the 
deformation field pushes in.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         Ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw
04/18Z  220 220 120  60    90 120  60   0     0   0   0   0
05/06Z  270 300 220  90    60  60  30   0     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  300 300 220 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/06Z  270 270 220 150     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  220 220 220 180     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/06Z  180 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/18Z  140 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/06Z  100 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/18Z   60 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
09/06Z   20 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
09/18Z    0 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

End bowyer/fogarty


WOCN31 CWHX 041500
Tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement issued by
The Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 11.49 AM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

 At 12 noon ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
44.5 N and longitude 64.2 W... Near Chester Nova Scotia.

 Earl began rapid acceleration this morning and is now moving
Northeast at 40 knots ... 74 km/h. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 60 knots... 111 km/h and central pressure at 960 MB. 
Earl is now a strong tropical storm which began the transition to
A post-tropical storm in the last couple of hours.

 Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia near the Shelburne Queens
Counties boundary ... About 85 km southwest of Lunenburg ...
Around 10:30 AM ADT.

 There is conflicting information as to whether Earl was a strong 
tropical storm or a hurricane at landfall. These details will be
Sorted out in a post-storm analysis ... However the difference 
between the two is only 8 km/h in terms of maximum wind speeds which 
is easily within meteorological observation errors.

The following peak wind reports were received:

Baccaro Point 102 km/h ... 8 AM ADT
Western Head 98 km/h ... 10 AM ADT
Lunenburg 111 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Obsborne head 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
McNabs Island 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Bedford Basin 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Halifax airport 111 km/h ... 11.43 AM ADT
Beaver Island 104 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Browns Bank buoy ... 100 km/h
West Scotian Slope buoy ... 119 km/h.

The west Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant
Wave heights at 11 AM ADT.

Reports received of more than 70 thousand customers with power 
outages.

 Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End bowyer/fogarty


WOCN31 CWHX 041200
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Saturday
04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 12.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 42.8 N
And longitude 65.8 W... About 60 nautical miles or 115 km south 
southeast of Yarmouth . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
65 knots... 120 km/h... And central pressure at 965 MB. Earl is
Moving northeast at 28 knots... 52 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 04  9.00 AM  42.8N  65.8W   965   65  120
Sep 04  3.00 PM  45.3N  63.4W   970   55  102 transitioning
Sep 04  9.00 PM  47.9N  61.1W   977   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 AM  50.0N  59.1W   982   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  9.00 AM  51.9N  56.6W   988   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 PM  53.6N  55.0W   990   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 05  9.00 PM  55.4N  53.5W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 AM  57.0N  55.9W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  9.00 AM  58.2N  57.9W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 PM  58.8N  59.3W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  9.00 PM  59.4N  60.4W   992   35   65 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

Earl is expected to make landfall in Southern Nova Scotia in the
Next few hours ... Or brush right along the coast and make landfall 
in Lunenburg or Halifax county closer to noon.

Hurricane watches are in effect for Halifax, Lunenburg, Queens, 
Shelburne, Yarmouth and Guysborough counties of Nova Scotia.
Tropical storm warnings are continued for all of mainland Nova
Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, iles de la 
Madeleine and Southeast New Brunswick.

These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding public wind 
warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Gusts of this speed
Could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come 
down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power 
failures. There could also be some damage to signage, roofing 
materials and building cladding. Gusts possibly to 130 km/h remain a 
concern which could exacerbate these impacts.

A tropical storm watch is continued for Kent County and
Kouchibouguac National Park.

Heavy rain has been falling over Southwestern Nova Scotia for many 
hours and rainfall warnings are in effect for many portions of the 
Maritimes with either 50+ mm in total or 25 mm/hr rates.

Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to 
some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure, although the tides 
are running low (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane warnings are continued for Lurcher and Browns Bank.
Gale or storm warnings are continued for most other portions of
The maritime marine district. Gale warnings are continued for
Western Newfoundland waters.

Storm force winds arrived at the Browns Bank buoy at 6AM ADT and the 
west Scotian Slope buoy at 7AM ADT. Gale force gusts started being 
reported from Baccaro Point at 6AM ADT.

With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can be
Expected primarily along south and southeast facing coastlines.

The threat of storm surge flooding is low for regions around
The Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge 
threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia, and the southern gulf
Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait.

5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists

A. Analysis
Earlier aircraft reconnaissance showed winds below hurricane
Strength although the storm retains a clear satellite eye signature. 
Ir goes imagery shows a reorganization off the core with an eye. 
Composite radar has captured a closed circulation moving into 
Southwestern Nova Scotia.

Buoy b44024 reported 54 kts at 10Z with MSLP 969 MB with pressure 
dropping rapidly. 11Z report from b44024 showed storm centre just 
passing the buoy in the previous hour with a pressure report of
967 MB and 50 KT southwest winds ... So we fix MSLP of Earl at 965 
MB. Buoy b44150 reported 11Z Max winds of 50 kts. This combined with 
satellite interpretation provides our rationale for maintaining
Earl as a marginal hurricane.

B. Prognostic
Short-term extrapolation shows the centre of Earl coming in near
The boundary between Lunenburg and Halifax counties. Beyond that 
early track guidance is much more divergent than it was a day ago
... With a split in solutions. Accordingly our confidence in the 
forecast track beyond 36 hours is low.

C. Public weather
Ascat satellite wind derivations show the distortion of wind
Fields has taken place with the strongest band in its
Southeastern sector. So far, satellite imagery of the spiral
Warm topped convection implies that rain band structure may
Dominate upon landfall. Hence over 25 mm an hour heavy downpours
Are expected. We should shortly see the area of
Precipitation evolve such that the heaviest rain moves toward
The left side of the storm and nudge toward a cold front
Approaching from the west. Some computer model runs
Still show a band of rain extending east of the storm
Into Newfoundland as Earl nears, similar to a warm front
Development.

Regarding rainfall potential, for a storm of this nature, 2500 
divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for 
rainfalls associated with the storm core.  That roughly equates to
40 to 70 mm potential.  These amounts are generally in line with
The output of latest dynamical models.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         Ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw
04/12Z  210 210 150  90   120 120  75  60     0  20   0   0
04/18Z  220 220 150  90   100 120  60  60     0   0   0   0
05/00Z  240 240 210  90    90  90  60  30     0   0   0   0
05/06Z  270 300 300  90    60  60  30  30     0   0   0   0
05/12Z  300 300 300  90     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  300 300 300 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/00Z  300 300 300 150     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/06Z  270 270 270 180     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/12Z  240 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  220 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/00Z  200 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

End campbell/fogarty/bowyer


WOCN31 CWHX 040900
Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the 
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 6.00 AM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM ADT

 At 6.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude
41.7 N and longitude 67.2 W... About 110 nautical miles or
135 km south southwest of Yarmouth.

 Earl is moving towards the north-northeastward at 25 knots... 46
Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120
Km/h and central pressure at 965 MB.

 Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End campbell

Tropical Storm Earl Over Nova Scotia & PEI Update 3

000
WTNT32 KNHC 041744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...TROPICAL STORM EARL RAKING NOVA SCOTIA...WIND INCREASING ON
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.8N 63.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF CHARLOTTETOWN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTERS LAKE TO POINT TUPPER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO MARGARETSVILLE
* MEDWAY HARBOUR AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF NOVA SCOTIA TO
TIDNISH  
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA TO LOWER
DARNLEY
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. EARL HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. THIS MOTION WILL BRING EARL
ACROSS PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE VERY
SOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  NUMEROUS STATIONS IN
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED TROPICAL FORCE
WINDS.  BEAVER ISLAND ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA 
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH...104 KM/HR AND GUSTS
TO 76 MPH...123 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL SPREADING OVER EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA AND
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

Tropical Storm Earl Over Nova Scotia Update 2

Tropical Storm Earl Over Nova Scotia Update 1

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
EARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON
SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
EARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 44.3N  64.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 48.0N  60.7W    50 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  56.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 55.5N  53.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 57.0N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 56.0N  53.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
...TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA SCOTIA
AROUND 10 AM EDT...1400 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE PROVINCE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.3N 64.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO PORT
LHEBERT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LHEBERT TO POINT TUPPER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE FUNDY NATIONAL PARK EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE...AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA
SCOTIA EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER
OF EARL WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
64.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  NUMEROUS STATIONS IN
NOVA SCOTIA ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED TROPICAL FORCE WINDS.  MCNABS
ISLAND JUST REPORTED 56 MPH...90 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH...109
KM/HR. LUNENBURG REPORTED GUSTS TO 69 MPH...111 KM/HR AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.  THIS
IS BASED ON A 963 MB...28.44 INCHES...PRESSURE REPORT BY WESTERN
HEAD AS EARL WAS MAKING LANDFALL.
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
WILL SPREAD OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. NEAR THE COASTS...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER
NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
 
NNNN


Tropical Storm Earl Nova Scotia Landfall

Tropical Storm Earl Nears Landfall in Nova Scotia

WOCN31 CWHX 041200 


Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 12.00 PM ADT 1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 42.8 N And longitude 65.8 W... About 60 nautical miles or 115 km south southeast of Yarmouth . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120 km/h... And central pressure at 965 MB. Earl is Moving northeast at 28 knots... 52 km/h. 2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind ADT MB kts kmh Sep 04 9.00 AM 42.8N 65.8W 965 65 120 Sep 04 3.00 PM 45.3N 63.4W 970 55 102 transitioning Sep 04 9.00 PM 47.9N 61.1W 977 50 93 post-tropical Sep 05 3.00 AM 50.0N 59.1W 982 50 93 post-tropical Sep 05 9.00 AM 51.9N 56.6W 988 40 74 post-tropical Sep 05 3.00 PM 53.6N 55.0W 990 40 74 post-tropical Sep 05 9.00 PM 55.4N 53.5W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 3.00 AM 57.0N 55.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 9.00 AM 58.2N 57.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 3.00 PM 58.8N 59.3W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 9.00 PM 59.4N 60.4W 992 35 65 post-tropical 3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary Earl is expected to make landfall in Southern Nova Scotia in the Next few hours ... Or brush right along the coast and make landfall in Lunenburg or Halifax county closer to noon. Hurricane watches are in effect for Halifax, Lunenburg, Queens, Shelburne, Yarmouth and Guysborough counties of Nova Scotia. Tropical storm warnings are continued for all of mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, iles de la Madeleine and Southeast New Brunswick. These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding public wind warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Gusts of this speed Could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power failures. There could also be some damage to signage, roofing materials and building cladding. Gusts possibly to 130 km/h remain a concern which could exacerbate these impacts. A tropical storm watch is continued for Kent County and Kouchibouguac National Park. Heavy rain has been falling over Southwestern Nova Scotia for many hours and rainfall warnings are in effect for many portions of the Maritimes with either 50+ mm in total or 25 mm/hr rates. Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure, although the tides are running low (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide. 4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane warnings are continued for Lurcher and Browns Bank. Gale or storm warnings are continued for most other portions of The maritime marine district. Gale warnings are continued for Western Newfoundland waters. Storm force winds arrived at the Browns Bank buoy at 6AM ADT and the west Scotian Slope buoy at 7AM ADT. Gale force gusts started being reported from Baccaro Point at 6AM ADT. With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can be Expected primarily along south and southeast facing coastlines. The threat of storm surge flooding is low for regions around The Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia, and the southern gulf Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait. 5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists A. Analysis Earlier aircraft reconnaissance showed winds below hurricane Strength although the storm retains a clear satellite eye signature. Ir goes imagery shows a reorganization off the core with an eye. Composite radar has captured a closed circulation moving into Southwestern Nova Scotia. Buoy b44024 reported 54 kts at 10Z with MSLP 969 MB with pressure dropping rapidly. 11Z report from b44024 showed storm centre just passing the buoy in the previous hour with a pressure report of 967 MB and 50 KT southwest winds ... So we fix MSLP of Earl at 965 MB. Buoy b44150 reported 11Z Max winds of 50 kts. This combined with satellite interpretation provides our rationale for maintaining Earl as a marginal hurricane. B. Prognostic Short-term extrapolation shows the centre of Earl coming in near The boundary between Lunenburg and Halifax counties. Beyond that early track guidance is much more divergent than it was a day ago ... With a split in solutions. Accordingly our confidence in the forecast track beyond 36 hours is low. C. Public weather Ascat satellite wind derivations show the distortion of wind Fields has taken place with the strongest band in its Southeastern sector. So far, satellite imagery of the spiral Warm topped convection implies that rain band structure may Dominate upon landfall. Hence over 25 mm an hour heavy downpours Are expected. We should shortly see the area of Precipitation evolve such that the heaviest rain moves toward The left side of the storm and nudge toward a cold front Approaching from the west. Some computer model runs Still show a band of rain extending east of the storm Into Newfoundland as Earl nears, similar to a warm front Development. Regarding rainfall potential, for a storm of this nature, 2500 divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for rainfalls associated with the storm core. That roughly equates to 40 to 70 mm potential. These amounts are generally in line with The output of latest dynamical models. D. Marine weather Predicted wind radii (NM) Time gales storms hurricane Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw 04/12Z 210 210 150 90 120 120 75 60 0 20 0 0 04/18Z 220 220 150 90 100 120 60 60 0 0 0 0 05/00Z 240 240 210 90 90 90 60 30 0 0 0 0 05/06Z 270 300 300 90 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0 05/12Z 300 300 300 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05/18Z 300 300 300 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/00Z 300 300 300 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/06Z 270 270 270 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/12Z 240 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 220 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/00Z 200 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 End campbell/fogarty/bowyer
WOCN31 CWHX 040900 Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 6.00 AM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM ADT At 6.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 41.7 N and longitude 67.2 W... About 110 nautical miles or 135 km south southwest of Yarmouth. Earl is moving towards the north-northeastward at 25 knots... 46 Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120 Km/h and central pressure at 965 MB. Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada. End campbell
WOCN31 CWHX 040600 Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 AM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 6.00 AM ADT 1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion At 3.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 40.5 N and longitude 68.2 W... About 95 nautical miles or 175 km east southeast of Nantucket. Maximum sustained winds Are estimated at 60 to 65 knots... 110 to 120 km/h... And central pressure at 959 MB. Earl is moving northeast At 24 knots... 44 km/h. 2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind ADT MB kts kmh Sep 04 3.00 AM 40.5N 68.2W 960 65 120 Sep 04 9.00 AM 43.2N 66.6W 969 65 120 Sep 04 3.00 PM 45.5N 64.1W 974 55 102 post-tropical Sep 04 9.00 PM 48.0N 61.5W 977 50 93 post-tropical Sep 05 3.00 AM 50.0N 59.2W 997 50 93 post-tropical Sep 05 9.00 AM 51.9N 56.6W 988 40 74 post-tropical Sep 05 3.00 PM 53.4N 54.8W 990 40 74 post-tropical Sep 05 9.00 PM 55.3N 53.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 3.00 AM 57.0N 55.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 9.00 AM 58.2N 57.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 3.00 PM 58.8N 59.3W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 9.00 PM 59.4N 60.4W 992 35 65 post-tropical Sep 07 3.00 AM 59.9N 61.1W 993 35 65 post-tropical 3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane watches remain in effect for Halifax, Lunenburg, Queens, Shelburne, Yarmouth and Digby counties of Nova Scotia. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for all of mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, iles de la Madeleine and the Fundy coast of New Brunswick including Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick. These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding public wind warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Gusts of this speed Could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power failures. There could also be some damage to signage, roofing materials and building cladding. Gusts possibly to 130 km/h remain a concern which could exacerbate these impacts. A tropical storm watch is continued for Kent County and Kouchibouguac National Park. Rainfall warnings are in effect for many portions of the Maritimes with either 50+ mm in total or 25 mm/hr rates. The uncertainty in the timing of the storm's arrival is about plus Or minus 3 hours. Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure, although the tides are running low (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide. 4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane warnings are in effect for Lurcher and Browns Bank in the southwest Maritimes marine district. Gales or storms are in effect for many other portions of that district. Gales are in effect for Western Newfoundland waters. With the arrival of Earl, high waves and pounding surf can be expected primarily along south and southeast-facing coastlines. The threat of storm surge flooding is not great for regions around the Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia, and the southern gulf Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait. 5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists A. Analysis Aircraft reconnaissance show winds now below hurricane strength. Goes imagery is into eclipse mode but until that time, the Ciculation centre of Earl seemed ot be slightly more eastward And slower than our forecast track. Convection was diminishing Over Earl. B. Prognostic The majority of model runs continue to show a track through Nova Scotia. However.. Satellite imagery and Boston long Range radar would favour a more eastward and slower Solution. It is noted that the operational dynamic models Such as the Gem regional model, nam and gfs have been hinting At this more eastward track for several runs. As a result.. We favour a more eastward track with Earl in this release of the forecast. As for the subject of Miami forecasting 60 knots and Halifax forecasting 65 knots for the storm, we maintain the slightly Stronger winds based on the abnormally hot and humid airmass over The Maritimes which will allow Earl to hold onto its tropical character. As well, water temperatures over which the highest Winds of the storm will travel are running 2 to 4 degrees Above normal. The buffering effect of the usually cooler Waters will be less with this storm. Thus, gusty winds, Possibly hurricane force, could overspread Nova Scotia with The wind flow off the water from the south. It must be said that the difference of 5 knots or 9 km/h is well within the normal forecast error of wind forecasting. Hence Our maintenance of Earl as a 65 knot hurricane is justified. The upper trough moving slowly through Ontario continues to Guide Earl toward Southeastern Labrador. Afterward it becomes captured and gradually loses its identity as it curls into this Upper feature. C. Public weather Ascat satellite wind derivations show the distortion of wind Fields already taking palce with the strongest band in its southeastern sector. American long range radr show a continuation Of a rain band structure. We should shortly see the area of precipitation evolve such that the heaviest rain moves toward The left side of the storm and nudge toward a cold front Approaching from the west. Some computer model runs Still show a band of rain extending east of the storm Into Newfoundland as Earl nears, similar to a warm front Development. Regarding rainfall potential, for a storm of this nature, 2500 divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for rainfalls associated with the storm core. That roughly equates to 40 to 70 mm potential. These amounts are generally in line with The output of latest dynamical models. D. Marine weather Wave models plus forecaster experience suggest that seas of 10 Metres are possible along the southern portion of Nova Scotia. Predicted wind radii (NM) Time gales storms hurricane Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw 04/06Z 210 210 150 150 90 150 90 60 20 20 20 20 04/12Z 210 210 160 120 120 120 75 60 0 20 0 0 04/18Z 220 220 160 110 100 120 60 45 0 0 0 0 05/00Z 240 240 210 100 90 90 60 30 0 0 0 0 05/06Z 270 300 300 100 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0 05/12Z 300 300 300 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05/18Z 300 300 300 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/00Z 300 300 300 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/06Z 270 270 270 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/12Z 240 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 220 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/00Z 200 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/06Z 180 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 End campbell
WOCN31 CWHX 040300 Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 12.00 PM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT At 12.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 40.0 N and longitude 69.7 W... About 75 nautical miles or 140 km south southeast of Nantucket . Earl is moving towards the northeast at 22 knots... 54 Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 60 to 65 Knots... 100 to 120 km/h and central pressure at 958 MB. Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada. End campbell
 
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
...EARL VERY NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.9N 65.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF CAPE SABLE NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR MAINE FROM
STONINGTON TO EASTPORT.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT TUPPER.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO PORT MAITLAND HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER TO FUNDY NATIONAL PARK HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO POINT TUPPER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE FUNDY NATIONAL PARK EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE...AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A VERY LARGE AND STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. BUOY 44024 LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
SABLE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. 
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE REACHED THE WARNING
AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. NEAR THE COASTS...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER EASTERN MAINE...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN

Fifth, and Final, day of the Great Heatwave of Late August/Early September 2010

Only one location, the provincial capital officially recorded a heat wave day on Friday.  
 
Historical Data
 
Fredericton
  • Yesterday
  •  
  • Max:
  • 33.3°C
  • Min:
  • 18.9°C
  • Precip:
  • 2.6 mm
  •  
  •  
  • Normals
  •  
  • Max:
  • 21°C
  • Min:
  • 8°C
  •  
  • Today
  •  
  • Sunrise:
  • 6:51
  • Sunset:
  • 20:01