Saturday, August 27, 2011

Hurricane Irene A Potentially Historic Storm No.4

















000
WTNT34 KNHC 280256
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...IRENE DRENCHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH HEAVY RAINS AS IT

...........SKIRTS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT.000


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED
OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 125 MILES...205 KM...TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AS
FAR NORTH AS THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET
HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE
PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING
HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED
AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.FXUS61 KCAR 280230


AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --IRENE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THEN TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY THEN WELL
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --UPDATE: KEPT ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND RUC SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. BIGGER
CONCERN IS WHAT WILL IRENE DO OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. LATEST
ADVISORY FROM NHC HAS HRCN IRENE AT 75 MPH AT INITIAL POSITION AND
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH. SEE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR

FURTHER DETAILS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE REACHING DOWNEAST
AREAS LATE TNGT...WHERE WEAK FRONTOGENESIS LCLY ENHANCING A RAIN
BAND OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY SUN
DAYBREAK...SPCLY IF THE LATEST NAM12 VERIFIES. OTHERWISE...THE
LEADING EDGE OF RNFL GRADUALLY WORKS INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN
MORN AND THEN SPREADS N OF THE ST JOHN VLY BY SUN AFTN. RN WILL BE
HVY ATTMS SPCLY SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT WITH THE MAIN TROP MOISTURE
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE. MODELS THEN INDICATE DRY SLOTTING
COMING ARND FROM THE SW SIDE OF IRENE... TAPERING RNFL TO SHWRS
ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO ERL MON MORN. TROP
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH DOWNEAST AREAS FIRST BY LATE SUN AFTN
AND EXIT ERLY MON MORN. NRN AREAS WILL INITIALLY EXPERIENCE TROP
STORM FORCE WINDS OVRNGT SUN CONTG INTO MON MORN BEFORE COMPLETELY

EXITING THE FA BY MON AFTN.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IRENE IS EXPECT TO MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW
ENGLAND MID DAY SUNDAY. THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
IN THE EVENING. IRENE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CANADA MONDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND OVER INLAND NEW ENGLAND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL WITH STRENGTH
OF IRENE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND
POWER OUTAGES. HAVE BLENDED THE TCM WIND TOOL WITH THE GFS TO
INITIALIZE THE WIND GRIDS. WILL DO MANUAL EDITING FOR SMOOTHING
AND TO BRING SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS INTO TOLERANCE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICE.

Hurricane Irene Update Thirteen




000
WTNT34 KNHC 272253
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...IRENE RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WATER LEVELS RISING
IN THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...

....AT 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
A NOAA C-MAN STATION EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 68
MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4.6 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS
OCCURRED SO FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT
OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

PEI Warnings







Queens County P.E.I.
3:59 PM ADT Saturday 27 August 2011
Wind warning for
Queens County P.E.I. issued

Wind gusts up to 90 km/h is expected Sunday night.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Hurricane Irene is currently located near Cape Hatteras and it is expected to become post-tropical before it tracks through Northwestern New Brunswick on Monday morning.

As Irene approaches, strong southerly winds gusting up to 90 km/h will begin late Sunday evening and continue through the night. Also rain at times heavy will begin Sunday afternoon. Currently 30 millimeters of rain is forecast.

Atlantic Canada Warnings




Inverness County - Mabou and north
3:52 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2011
LES SUÊTES WIND WARNING FOR
Inverness County - Mabou and north ISSUED

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.Halifax County - east of Porters Lake

3:52 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2011
WIND WARNING FOR
Halifax County - east of Porters Lake ISSUED

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

3:52 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2011
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West ISSUED

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

Channel-Port aux Basques - Burgeo

3:44 PM NDT Saturday 27 August 2011
Wreckhouse wind warning for
Channel-Port aux Basques - Burgeo issued

Winds gusting up to 120 km/hour are expected to develop in the Wreckhouse area on Sunday night.

This is a warning that potentially hazardous winds are expected or in the Wreckhouse area of Southwestern Newfoundland. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Hurricane Irene will weaken and become post tropical as it tracks across Northwestern New Brunswick on Monday morning. Strong southeasterly winds will develop Sunday night ahead of Irene, gusting up to 120 km/hour in the Wreckhouse area. Fredericton and Southern York County

3:32 PM ADT Saturday 27 August 2011
Wind warning for
Fredericton and Southern York County issued

Wind gusts up to 100 km/h to develop Sunday night into Monday.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Hurricane Irene will weaken and become post-tropical before tracking across Northwestern New Brunswick Monday morning. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Fundy coast as conditions deteoriate on Sunday. Rainfall in advance of this system will begin to move into western portions of New Brunswick tonight and persist through Sunday into early Monday. Amounts up to 100 millimetres are expected. In addition strong winds up to 100 km/h will develop overnight Sunday night into Monday.

Fredericton and Southern York County
3:32 PM ADT Saturday 27 August 2011
Rainfall warning for
Fredericton and Southern York County issued

Rainfall amounts of up to 100 millimetres expected through Monday morning.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Hurricane Irene will weaken and become post-tropical before tracking across Northwestern New Brunswick Monday morning. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Fundy coast as conditions deteoriate on Sunday. Rainfall in advance of this system will begin to move into western portions of New Brunswick tonight and persist through Sunday into early Monday. Amounts up to 100 millimetres are expected. In addition strong winds up to 100 km/h will develop overnight Sunday night into Monday.

Hurricane Irene Update Twelve













TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT WITH APPROACH OF IRENE...

.NEW INFORMATION...
IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE...
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO EASTPORT ME OUT 25 NM.

.WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS... NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK...NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK...NORTHERN
SOMERSET... NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS...NORTHERN PENOBSCOT...SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK... CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS...CENTRAL PENOBSCOT...SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT... INTERIOR HANCOCK...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...COASTAL
HANCOCK...COASTAL WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO EASTPORT ME OUT
25 NM.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.5N... LONGITUDE 51.8W OR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WAS
ABOUT 870 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF BAR HARBOR ME...OR ABOUT 830
MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF EASTPORT ME. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH
NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 85 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IRENE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
THEN INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK INTO WESTERN MAINE
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE INTO CANADA MONDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN SOME STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. ALONG THE COAST A 2 FOOT STORM SURGE CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS
WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY LARGE BREAKING WAVES WHICH COULD ADD AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET OF RUNUP ONTO BEACHES EXPOSED TO THE OPEN
OCEAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE
PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR
FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.000


WTNT34 KNHC 271448
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...IRENE BATTERING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST...AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS


.........LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 63 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
Grand Falls and Victoria County

10:46 AM ADT Saturday 27 August 2011
Rainfall warning for
Grand Falls and Victoria County issued

Rainfall amounts of up to 50 millimetres expected for these areas through Sunday.
This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Hurricane Irene will weaken and become post-tropical before tracking across Northwestern New Brunswick Monday morning. Rainfall in advance of this system will begin to move into the region on Sunday and persist into Monday. Amounts up to 50 millimetres are currently forecast through the day on Sunday with additional amounts of 20 to 30 millimetres possible on Monday. In addition strong winds will occur late Sunday night into early Monday. The public is advised that wind warnings will likely be issued this afternoon for Sunday night for portions of New Brunswick.