Tropical Storm Andrea Update Two

000
WTNT41 KNHC 070235
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

ANDREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING INLAND EARLIER THIS
EVENING. THE ONLY REPORT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON LAND OR
OVER WATER HAS COME FROM A SHIP OBSERVATION EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT.
ANY WINDS THIS STRONG ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN RANBANDS OFFSHORE TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANDREA BEARS
LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY
INTRUSION NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN A BAND WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. GIVEN
THAT ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER...
INTERACTION WITH BAROCLINIC FEATURES WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE
MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
ANDREA IS ABSORBED BY A LIFTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...AND SHOWS
ANDREA BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DOES NOT IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/13...AS THE CENTER SLOWED A LITTLE WHILE
MOVING ONSHORE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THEN TURNING
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC FORECST IS
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AFTERWARD. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND ALSO LIES NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS
ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT
ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD
TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WARNING PRODUCTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 30.3N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  07/1200Z 33.0N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  08/0000Z 36.8N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/1200Z 41.0N  70.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0000Z 44.7N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0000Z 45.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0000Z 45.5N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN 

 WOCN31 CWHX 062345
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:49 PM ADT THURSDAY
6 JUNE 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      ATLANTIC PROVINCES.

      FOR TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT.

      REMNANTS OF ANDREA TO BRING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE
      WINDS TO ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 29.8 NORTH 83.0 WEST.

ABOUT 145 KILOMETRES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KM/H.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 24 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 MB.


2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

AS EXPECTED...THE CENTRE OF ANDREA MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA 
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL SYSTEM WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END 
OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND DEVELOP A DISTINCT WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND 
AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE.  THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE 
MARITIMES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANT LOW COULD TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA 
OR AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.  A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL 
BRIEFLY BRING A MUGGY AIRMASS AND PRODUCE SOME MODERATE WINDS OVER 
NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND 
ON SUNDAY.

A. WIND.

WHILE THE REMAINS OF ANDREA WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE 
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY, AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL 
REACH WARNING CRITERIA (GUSTS OF 90 KM/H) OVER INLAND REGIONS.
BY EARLY FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE MORE DETAILS ON WHAT TO EXPECT.

B. RAINFALL.

THE PRIMARY FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE RAINFALL.
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE 
TRACK.  CURRENTLY WE EXPECT THE TRACK OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW TO BE 
NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA, SO NOVA SCOTIA CURRENTLY STANDS TO SEE THE 
MOST RAIN FROM IT.  HOWEVER, A TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK 
(NORTHERN SCENARIO) WOULD MEAN HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THAT PROVINCE. 
RAINFALL WARNINGS (GREATER THAN 50 MILLIMETRES) MAY BE ISSUED ON 
FRIDAY FOR SOME REGIONS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.  A TRACK ACROSS 
SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK WOULD RESULT IN SOME MODERATE WAVE ACTIVITY 
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND BAY OF FUNDY REGION BUT 
NOTHING TO CAUSE CONCERN AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER, STAY TUNED IN CASE 
THE STORM INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OFF THE U.S. COAST WHICH IS STILL A 
POSSIBILITY.  IN ANY CASE, THE LOW WILL BE PRIMARILY NON-TROPICAL IN 
NATURE.


3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE QUITE LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MARITIME 
WATERS, AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY.


VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END 

 OCN14 CWHX 061852
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 3:52 PM ADT 
Thursday 6 June 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= New Brunswick.

      Remnants of Andrea to bring potentially heavy rain and strong
      Winds to Atlantic Canada this weekend.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Tropical storm Andrea, currently located near Florida, is expected to 
become post-tropical and then approach the Maritimes this weekend. 
This system is expected to bring significant rainfall to Southern New
Brunswick beginning late Friday night and continuing throughout the 
day Saturday.  There is potential for the rain to be heavy at times 
in some locations, and rainfall warnings may be required.
Moderate to strong winds associated with this system are also 
expected to affect parts of the province this weekend.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as 
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

 WOCN11 CWHX 061852
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 3:52 PM ADT 
Thursday 6 June 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Mainland Nova Scotia
=new= Cape Breton.

      Remnants of Andrea to bring potentially heavy rain and strong
      Winds to Atlantic Canada this weekend.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Tropical storm Andrea, currently located near Florida, is expected to 
become post-tropical and then approach the Maritimes this weekend. 
This system is expected to bring significant rainfall to Nova Scotia 
beginning late Friday night and continuing throughout the day 
Saturday.  There is potential for the rain to be heavy at times in 
some locations, and rainfall warnings may be required.  Moderate to 
strong winds associated with this system are also expected to affect 
parts of the province this weekend.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as 
warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End