Thursday, June 06, 2013

Tropical Storm Andrea Update Two

000
WTNT41 KNHC 070235
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

ANDREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING INLAND EARLIER THIS
EVENING. THE ONLY REPORT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON LAND OR
OVER WATER HAS COME FROM A SHIP OBSERVATION EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT.
ANY WINDS THIS STRONG ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN RANBANDS OFFSHORE TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANDREA BEARS
LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY
INTRUSION NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN A BAND WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. GIVEN
THAT ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER...
INTERACTION WITH BAROCLINIC FEATURES WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE
MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
ANDREA IS ABSORBED BY A LIFTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...AND SHOWS
ANDREA BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DOES NOT IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/13...AS THE CENTER SLOWED A LITTLE WHILE
MOVING ONSHORE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THEN TURNING
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC FORECST IS
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AFTERWARD. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND ALSO LIES NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS
ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT
ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD
TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WARNING PRODUCTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 30.3N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  07/1200Z 33.0N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  08/0000Z 36.8N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/1200Z 41.0N  70.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0000Z 44.7N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0000Z 45.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0000Z 45.5N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN 
 
 WOCN31 CWHX 062345
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:49 PM ADT THURSDAY
6 JUNE 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      ATLANTIC PROVINCES.

      FOR TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT.

      REMNANTS OF ANDREA TO BRING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE
      WINDS TO ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 29.8 NORTH 83.0 WEST.

ABOUT 145 KILOMETRES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KM/H.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 24 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 MB.


2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

AS EXPECTED...THE CENTRE OF ANDREA MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA 
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL SYSTEM WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END 
OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND DEVELOP A DISTINCT WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND 
AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE.  THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE 
MARITIMES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANT LOW COULD TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA 
OR AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.  A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL 
BRIEFLY BRING A MUGGY AIRMASS AND PRODUCE SOME MODERATE WINDS OVER 
NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND 
ON SUNDAY.

A. WIND.

WHILE THE REMAINS OF ANDREA WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE 
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY, AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL 
REACH WARNING CRITERIA (GUSTS OF 90 KM/H) OVER INLAND REGIONS.
BY EARLY FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE MORE DETAILS ON WHAT TO EXPECT.

B. RAINFALL.

THE PRIMARY FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE RAINFALL.
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE 
TRACK.  CURRENTLY WE EXPECT THE TRACK OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW TO BE 
NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA, SO NOVA SCOTIA CURRENTLY STANDS TO SEE THE 
MOST RAIN FROM IT.  HOWEVER, A TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK 
(NORTHERN SCENARIO) WOULD MEAN HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THAT PROVINCE. 
RAINFALL WARNINGS (GREATER THAN 50 MILLIMETRES) MAY BE ISSUED ON 
FRIDAY FOR SOME REGIONS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.  A TRACK ACROSS 
SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK WOULD RESULT IN SOME MODERATE WAVE ACTIVITY 
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND BAY OF FUNDY REGION BUT 
NOTHING TO CAUSE CONCERN AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER, STAY TUNED IN CASE 
THE STORM INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OFF THE U.S. COAST WHICH IS STILL A 
POSSIBILITY.  IN ANY CASE, THE LOW WILL BE PRIMARILY NON-TROPICAL IN 
NATURE.


3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE QUITE LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MARITIME 
WATERS, AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY.


VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END 
 
 OCN14 CWHX 061852
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 3:52 PM ADT 
Thursday 6 June 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= New Brunswick.

      Remnants of Andrea to bring potentially heavy rain and strong
      Winds to Atlantic Canada this weekend.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Tropical storm Andrea, currently located near Florida, is expected to 
become post-tropical and then approach the Maritimes this weekend. 
This system is expected to bring significant rainfall to Southern New
Brunswick beginning late Friday night and continuing throughout the 
day Saturday.  There is potential for the rain to be heavy at times 
in some locations, and rainfall warnings may be required.
Moderate to strong winds associated with this system are also 
expected to affect parts of the province this weekend.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as 
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
 
 WOCN11 CWHX 061852
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 3:52 PM ADT 
Thursday 6 June 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Mainland Nova Scotia
=new= Cape Breton.

      Remnants of Andrea to bring potentially heavy rain and strong
      Winds to Atlantic Canada this weekend.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Tropical storm Andrea, currently located near Florida, is expected to 
become post-tropical and then approach the Maritimes this weekend. 
This system is expected to bring significant rainfall to Nova Scotia 
beginning late Friday night and continuing throughout the day 
Saturday.  There is potential for the rain to be heavy at times in 
some locations, and rainfall warnings may be required.  Moderate to 
strong winds associated with this system are also expected to affect 
parts of the province this weekend.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as 
warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

Tropical Storm Andrea Update One















ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS NOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THIS MORNING...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND AN INNER WIND CORE...WITH SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55
KT ABOUT 20 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 71 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB. ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WAS A SHOALING CONTRIBUTION TO THE SFMR
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT. NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15. ANDREA SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST AND NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EASTWARD AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WITH THIS
GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING UNTIL DISSIPATION. WHILE THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD ONE.

ANDREA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES OVER AND
NEAR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UNTIL
DISSIPATION AROUND 120 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
COMPLETE...WHICH COULD CAUSE ANDREA TO HAVE A POST-TROPICAL PHASE
BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATOPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO
EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 29.5N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR COAST
12H 07/0600Z 31.9N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1800Z 35.6N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0600Z 39.8N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z 43.8N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 46.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 46.0N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN

WOCN31 CWHX 061745

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:04 PM ADT THURSDAY
6 JUNE 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
ATLANTIC PROVINCES.
FOR TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.

REMNANTS OF ANDREA TO BRING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE
WINDS TO ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT.
LOCATION: 29.1 NORTH 83.8 WEST.
ABOUT 175 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF TAMPA, FLORIDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KM/HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 20 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
WE NOW BEGIN REGULAR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM ANDREA AS IT MOVES
TOWARD EASTERN CANADA DIRECTION. THIS STORM WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND DEVELOP A DISTINCT
WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE MARITIMES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
FRIDAY OVER NOVA SCOTIA. THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANT LOW COULD TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OR AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.
A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL BRIEFLY BRING A MUGGY AIRMASS AND PRODUCE
SOME MODERATE WINDS OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

A. WIND.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA AT
THIS TIME. BY EARLY FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE SOME DETAILS ON WHAT TO
EXPECT.

B. RAINFALL.
THE PRIMARY FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE RAINFALL.
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT THE TRACK OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW TO BE
NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA, SO NOVA SCOTIA CURRENTLY STANDS TO SEE THE
MOST RAIN FROM IT. AS MENTIONED, A TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL NEW
BRUNSWICK (NORTHERN SCENARIO) WOULD MEAN HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THAT
PROVINCE. RAINFALL WARNINGS (GREATER THAN 50 MILLIMETRES) MAY BE
ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR SOME REGIONS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A TRACK THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK WOULD RESULT IN SOME MODERATE WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND BAY OF FUNDY REGION BUT NOTHING TO
CAUSE CONCERN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, STAY TUNED IN CASE THE STORM
INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OFF THE U.S. COAST WHICH IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
IN ANY CASE, THE LOW WILL BE PRIMARILY NON-TROPICAL IN NATURE.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE QUITE LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MARITIME
WATERS, AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.
- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.
- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.
- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY

Post-tropical storm Andrea may hit the Maritimes Friday night














Tropical Storm Andrea on track with strong winds and heavy rain

Posted: Jun 5, 2013 7:57 PM AT

Last Updated: Jun 5, 2013 10:23 PM AT

The Maritime provinces might be heading for a messy weekend, with forecasters predicting the region will be hit by the aftermath of 2013's first named storm.

Tropical Storm Andrea formed off the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday.
 
It's on track to hit New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island late Friday and through the day Saturday. By that point, CBC Meteorologist Kalin Mitchell said it will no longer be a named storm, but it could still pack a punch.

"It does look like the system will arrive in the Maritimes post-tropical this weekend with some strong and gusty winds and the potential for heavy rainfall," Mitchell said.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre said winds could be around 75 kilometres per hour.
Mitchell said the track could easily change in the next 48 hours, altering which parts of the Maritimes may be hit with the messy weather.
 
Two weeks ago, the Canadian Hurricane Centre released its prediction for this year, saying it will be a busy year with up to 20 named storms in the Atlantic. Three to six could be major hurricanes.
But Mitchell said Tropical Storm Andrea is not considered to be early. Last year, the first storm of 2012 — Alberto — formed on May 19.

"You can't tell the tale of a season by one storm," said Mitchell. "But the predictions this year were for a more active hurricane season, more named storms, more stronger storms and certainly now it’s off to a quick start."