Extratropical Storm Arthur (gale force) Update Eleven

FXCN31 CWHX 060600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.54 AM ADT
SUNDAY 06 JULY 2014.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT, POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
47.4 N AND LONGITUDE 62.5 W, ABOUT 27 NAUTICAL MILES OR 50 KM WEST OF 
I'LES DE LA MADELEINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 
KNOTS (83 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 984 MB. ARTHUR IS MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS (29 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
JUL 06  3.00 AM  47.4N  62.5W   984   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 06  9.00 AM  48.2N  60.3W   986   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 06  3.00 PM  49.6N  57.7W   987   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 06  9.00 PM  51.1N  55.5W   987   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 07  3.00 AM  53.1N  54.0W   987   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 07  9.00 AM  55.0N  53.0W   986   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 07  3.00 PM  56.6N  52.3W   985   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 07  9.00 PM  58.4N  51.6W   985   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 08  3.00 AM  60.2N  50.6W   985   35   65 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

ARTHUR IS NEAR ILES DE LA MADELEINE AND HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN 
NERFOUNDLAND. IT IS STARTING TO WEAKEN, AND THE STRONG JET WEST OF
THE STORM THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSTITION HAS 
DISSIPATED. THERE IS STILL A WEAKENEING BAND OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF 
THE STORM, BUT FURTHER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE UNLIKELY. THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INTENSIFYING ARTHUR IS NOW VERTICALLY 
STACKED, AND THE JET STREAM IS GIVING NO SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT TO THE 
LOW CENTER. A SPLIT JET IS GIVING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ARTHUR,  PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO SLOW THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE FORWARD SPEED OF ARTHUR HAS BEEN NEARLY CONSTANT DURING THE PAST 
FEW HOURS AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS.
AS THE STORM CROSSES NEWFOUNDLAND IT WILL ELONGATE  ON A 
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH, THEN SLOWLY DRIFT 
NORTHEAST OVER THE LABRADOR SEA AS AN OCCLUDED LOW. WINDS WILL BE
WEAK GALE FORCE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS MOTION, AND COLD SSTS
WILL FURTHER REDUCE THE STORM INTENSITY.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
06/06Z  120 200 180 100     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/12Z  150 215 170  95     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  170 230 160  90     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/00Z  190 235 160  70     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/06Z  205 235 160  45     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/12Z  230 260 160  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/18Z  250 265 160  15     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/00Z  250 250 160  10     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/06Z  270 255 160   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


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